Assembly Election 2011

On Thursday 5 May the Northern Ireland electorate go to the polls. The last Assembly Election was in 2007 and produced 44 Nationalist seats, 55 Unionist seats and 9 Other seats made up as follows

• Belfast East (N0 U5 O1)
• Belfast North (N3 U3 O0)
• Belfast South (N3 U2 O1)
• Belfast West (N6 U0 O0)
• Antrim East (N0 U5 O1)
• Antrim North (N2 U4 O0)
• Antrim South (N2 U3 O1)
• Down North (N0 U4 O2)
• Down South (N4 U2 O0)
• Fermanagh and South Tyrone (N3 U3 O0)
• Foyle (N5 U1 O0)
• Lagan Valley (N1 U4 O1)
• East Derry (N2 U4 O0)
• Mid Ulster (N4 U2 O0)
• Newry and Armagh (N4 U2 O0)
• Strangford (N0 U5 O1)
• West Tyrone (N3 U2 O1)
• Upper Bann (N2 U4 O0)

As the Unionist lead over Natinalists from 2007 is only 11 seats, what are the opportunities for Nationalists to close this gap.

Of course in West Tyrone the independent MLA Kieran Deeney is not running. In such a strongly Nationalist constituency a Nationalis gain is inevitable here.

The SDLP lost out on a seat in East Antrim in 2007 by a mere 900 votes. Boundry changes in this constituency should equate to a net gain of approx 2,000 Nationalist voters. This coupled with demographic changes since the last election and a SF (Oliver McMullan) or SDLP (Justin McCamphill) gain over the UUP (Rodney McCune who replaces Ken Robinson)  is a strong possiblity.

Something similar could happen in Strangford where there are also significant boundry changes which should benefit the Nationalist vote. In fact the SDLP's Joe Boyle lost out by just 31 votes to Michelle McIlveen of the DUP. Expect a Nationalist gain at the expense of a Unionist here.

There are also outside chances of Nationalist gains and/or Unionist losses in South Down, Upper Bann and East Derry and Mid Ulster (SF will target the UUP seat from Sandra Overend who takes over from her father Billy Armstrong). Could the Alliance party take a second seat in East Belfast?

Of course boundry changes can also benefit Unionists. No more can this be seen than in Lagan Valley where thousands of Nationalist votes have been lost to West Belfast and to a lesser extent Sout Antrim. It is almost a certainty that Unionists will gain a seat here at the expence of  Sinn Feins Paul Butler. A significant number of Nationalist votes have also been lost in North Antrim and South Antrim due to boundry changes, which place Nationalist seats under threat. However the numbers are not hugely significant and may be largely offset by changing demographics.

Registrar General Annual Report 2009

The Register Generals Annual Report for 2009 was published on 30 November 20009. It provides a wealth of information relating to the demographic make up of Northern Ireland

Information provided includes births in 2009, deaths in 2009 and as well as information on marriages, divorces and civil partnerships.

Although the report does not determine the community background of those born and deceased in 2009, appendix 2 provides details of the breakdown of births and deaths by District Council. Looking at the 2001 census, we see that Northern Ireland's 26 District Councils can be divided into three groups: majority Catholic/Nationalist, majority Protestant/Unionist and those that are evenly balanced (i.e. no community has a greater representation than 55%). Combining these two sets of figures produces the table below. As the figures used for births and deaths are related to 2009 and the figures for religous breakdown in district councils are related to 2001 the results are likely to be slightly distorted but no significantly so.





The average bith rate of the Catholic majoity areas in 2009 is 14.3 (per 1,000 population) which is 13.5% higher than the Protestant birth rate of 12.6. The average birth rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 13.9

The average death rate in Protestant dominated district councils in 2009 was 8.1 (per 1,000 population) compared to 7.2 in Catholic majority district councils which is a greater figure by 11.1%. The average death rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 8.1

A higher Nationalist birth rate and a higher Unionist death rate is not encouraging for those that oppose a United Ireland. The problem is compounded due to the fact that the numbers of Nationalists in the 'child-bearing cohort' (those aged between 20 and 39) is higher than the Nationalist population as a whole and the fact that Protestants account for approx two thirds of deaths each year.


These trends are consistent over the last number of years. The 2011 census will show the effects of these trends.

[graph]

General Election 2011

Not suprisingly the economy dominates the campaigning of all political parties in the run up to the election to Dáil Éireann.

Fianna Fáil look set for a shattering defeat and the Green Party are in danger of returning no Dáil seats. Labour and SF look set to make big gains but the real winners will be Fine Gael.

Perhaps the best indicator of the Friday 25 February election are the bookies (money talks!). Paddy Power  have tweeted

Paddy Power: What the money says today: FG 67, FF 34, Lab 34, SF 14, Ind 13, ULA 4. No change!

And the money does not often lie. Given that to form a government 84 seats are required, it looks like FG hopes of an outright majority are doomed. A FG/Labour coalition is inevitable.

 

Equality Commission Monitoring Report for 2009

On 7 December 2010 the Equality Comission published its 20th Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce. In 2009 Protestants represented 54.6% of the workforce. Catholics in the workforce stood at 45.4%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph






The reason why this graph is converging is due to the fact that the numbers of Catholics entering the workforce is significantly greater than the amount of Catholics in the overall workforce and the numbers of Protestants entering the workforce is significantly lower than their representation in the entire workforce.

The Equality Commission Report for 2009 also shows us the composition of applications to join the workforce by community background. In 2009 the Catholic percentage stood at 51.0% and the Protestant percentage was 49.0%.





For the first time ever the number of Catholics seeking employment is greater than the number of Protestants (by 10,465). As current trends continue expect further 'greening' of the workforce in the years ahead and a majority Catholic/Nationalist workforce around 2015.

Unionists and the Irish Language

This week, the official website of the DUP and the personal websites of party leader Peter Robinson and Lagan Valley MP Jeffery Donaldson were the victim of an amusing pranks by self professed Irish language 'hactivist' 'Hector O'Hackedatdawn'. The prankster ran a fake story on the DUP website as Gaeilge titled “Athbhliain faoi mhaise daoibh go léir”, or ‘Happy new year to you all’ which purported to claim that the party was embracing the Irish language. He also displayed Irish language messages on the sites of Peter Robinson ("Is mise Peadar Robinson, agus tugaim tacoíocht den Acht na Gaeilge" or 'I am Peter Robinson and I support the Irish Language Act') and Jeffery Donaldson.

The prankster claims his motive was to draw attention to the "nonsensical attiude" of the DUP towards the Irish language.

If this gag does nothing else (beside give thousands of people a giggle) it will highlight the bigotry of the DUP towards the Irish language or anything remotely Irish or of Irish culture for that matter.

Earlier this week, minister for the Dept of Regional Development proposed the introduction of bilingual traffic signs in both Irish and Ulster-Scots. Now to most people this would be seen as a good way of promoting minority languages, which the Dept is obliged to do under the European Charter of Regional and Minority languages. However the DUP are not like most people. They can hardly hide their hatred of anything remotely Irish. They could not of course say we are against this because they are anti Irish culture so someother excuse was to be expected. Their excuse is usually to do with the cost of implementation. However under this scheme the costs will be bourne by the promoter of the signs. So what other excuse could the DUP come up with? Read this little gem by DUP Strangford assembly member Michelle McIlveen

"Given the range of problems on Connor Murphy's desk he should be focusing on more important matters rather than a pointless political exercise about bilingual signage".

Of course there is nothing new or unexpected here from Unionists. The Irish Language Act has always been a bone of contention for the DUP and fellow unionists. Despite signing the St Andrews Agreement in 2006 which included that an Irish Language Act would be passed giving the Irish Language equal status in Northern Ireland, the DUP has vetoed every attempt Nationists have made to bring about it's introduction.

So fair play Hector for highlighting this bigotry and as you say yourself

 “My attack is against a political party which refuses to respect my culture and my language.”

Registrar General's Quaterly Report (2010 Q3)

On 22 December the Register General's Quaterly report was released for 2010 Q3. The birth and death rate per district council area are released in this report. Of the 26 councils 11 are majority Catholic areas and 10 are majority Protestant areas as per the 2001 census. Taking the average birth and death rates of both the Unionist majority councils and the Nationalist majority councils gives us the following table for Q3.

	Unionist majority councils	Nationalist majority councils	Councils with no clear majority
Birth rate	12.6	14.5	15.9
Death rate	8.0	6.6	6.8

We see that for Q3 the birth rate in Nationalist majority councils is 14.5 births per 1,000 people. This is significantly higher than the Protestant birthrate of 12.6. Furtermore, the death rate in Unionist majority councils is significantly higher than that of Catholics. The latest quaterly report does not tell us much we did not already know, it merely confirms that these trends are coninuing.

Spending cuts

In order to tackle the UKs budget defecit Chancellor George Osborne has set out a four year plan to introduce budget cuts of £4 billion in Northern Ireland. This will significantly reduce the block grant paid by the British government to Northern Ireland which currently stands at between £9 billion to £9.5 billion.
While these cuts will lead to 30,000 public sector job losses and will undoubtably be very painful, it does bring the block grant to a more realistic and sustainable level.

The reason for such a staggering block grant is simply that the public sector in Northern Ireland is much too large (believed to be around 66%).

Every party agrees that the private sector needs to be grown and the public sector reduced accordingly. This dependence on the public sector dissuades potential investors, causing relative poverty in Northern Ireland.

Now that the public sector is to be cut, the next stage in a self sustaining Northern Ireland is to grow the private sector. This is unlikely to happen within the UK. For one thing it would necessitate a reduction in corporation tax to match the Republics 12.5%. No UK government will do this for the North of Ireland. They are more interested in what is right for South East England, and besides could you imagine the reaction in Scotland and Wales if a concession like this was given to Northern Ireland.

Senior economists predict that (at least) a massive 90,000 jobs could be created if the North was allowed to adopt the economic policies of the rest of Ireland.

With the reduction in the block grant through spending cuts and the potential to eliminate it all together with growth in the private sector through All Ireland economic policy, the claim that the Republic of Ireland could not afford Northern Ireland is turned on its head (not withstanding the current economic difficulties south of the border). Also when there is an upturn in the global economy and Irish economies, the economic argument will further no longer wash as a valid excuse as to why there should not be a United Ireland.

Election date set

Despite earlier reports that the Assembly and Local elections would be held earlier than the May 5 date of the Alternative vote introduction referendum, it has been confirmed  that the date for all three elections will indeed be held on May 5.

The main issues which are likely to dominate the elections include the strong possibility of Martin McGuiness becoming First Minister, the impact of the cuts to the Northern Ireland budget, the economy, the Irish Language Act, the issue of parading and the possible reduction in the number of MPs.

The impact that the TUV will be of interest (Jim Allister has stated that he intends to stand in most of the constituencies) as will the effect of Tom Elliots take over of the leadership of the UUP. It will also be interesting to see what form of "Unionist Unity" measures are put in place and how the three main Unionist parties split of the votes pans out. What will be the effect this will have on Martins McGuinesses chances of becoming head honcho?

On the Nationalist side, can SF continue to gain ground on the SDLP or will Margaret Richie be able to costruct a SDLP revival?

Reduction in number of MPs

According to a BBC article, Nigel Dodds has spoke out against the passing of the bill to change the Westminster election voting system and reduce the number of Northern MPs.

The question arises as to why Dodds is critical of the bill. We already know that he will be struggling to hold his North Belfast seat at the next general election if current demographic and electoral trends in that constituency continue.

At present Unionists hold 9 seats, Nationalists hold 8 and Alliance hold 1. As the Alliance party won a seat in East Belfast due to the unpopularity of Peter Robinson, I think it is fair to say that many of the votes for Alliance in the constituency were drawn from Unionist voters.

Lets assume that Unionists hold 10 seats and Nationalists hold 8. Assuming that there are no changes to constituencies or the number of MPs at the next Westminster elections and Gerry Kelly wins North Belfast as expected, we will be left with 9 Unionist seats and 9 Nationalist seats. For the first time ever unionists will not have a majority of seats.

Under the proposals being pushed through by the Tory/Lib-Dem coalition in Britain the number of MPs in the north could be reduced from 18 to 15 seats, a loss of 3 seats. Does Nigel know something the rest of us do not? Is he worried that if the number of MPs are reduced by 3, it might be possible that a situation may arise where Nationalists actually have more MPs than Unionists after the next general election?

UUP leadership

On Wednesday 22nd of September the UUP will have a new leader. The leadership battle is to be a two horse race between a traditionalist Tom Elliot and a moderniser Basil McCrea.

A profile of each candidate is available on the UUP website.

Basil McCrea

Cllr Basil McCrea MLA was elected in 2007 to the Northern Ireland Assembly as an Ulster Unionist Party (UUP) member for Lagan Valley.
He is also a UUP Councillor on Lisburn City Council and a member of the Northern Ireland Policing Board and UUP spokesman on Education.
Basil was educated at Belfast Royal Academy before attaining a Chemical Engineering degree from the University of Birmingham. He later attained a degree in Advanced Computer Technology from the University of Ulster.


Tom Elliot


Political Career:Active member of the Fermanagh Unionist Association for many years
Honorary Secretary of the Fermanagh Unionist Association from 1998
Ulster Unionist Councillor on Fermanagh District Council from 2001, serving on following committees - Development, Planning, Policy & Resources; Environmental Services; Equality Impact.
Election Agent for James Cooper in the 2001 Westminster Elections
Chairman of internal Ulster Unionist ad-hoc Review group for its duration 2000/1
Special Interests:
Agriculture and Regional Development.
Educated Ballinamallard P.S.; Duke of Westminister High School, Ballinamallard & Kesh; Enniskillen College of Agriculture - College Certificate in Agriculture.
Justice
Employment:
Farmer on family run Beef and Dairy farm.
Part-time Ulster Defence Regiment and Royal Irish Regiment for 18 years


Elliot the traditionalist is an Orangeman. He favors of a formal link up with the DUP in a bid to form "unionist unity". He does not favor continuing the link with the British Tories and has spoken of his determination to change the St Andrews agreement so a nationalist cannot be elected as First Minster.

McCrea is strictly opposed to doing any deal with the in any form with the DUP and is also against a continuation of the Tory link.

The bookmakers have not yet published odds but it would appear that Elliot is seen as the favorite.

If Elliot wins and this man is given a platform to speak on behalf of moderate unionism, he will, with his 'traditional unionism' views antagonise and agitate many people. In fact he has already started with anti GAA and anti gay remarks.

Past experience tells us that as unionism attempts to strategise in order to encumber nationalism does not work. We saw this in Fermanagh and South Tyrone this year. Attempts at 'unionist unity' had the opposite effect and led to nationalist motivation. Elliot's appointment will ensure nationalism will again be motivated in upcoming elections. It may also lead to increased unionist apathy and ensure that people who occupy the centre ground or whom are indifferent to the constitutional question, will not look to unionist parties on polling day.

Best of luck Tom.