Fianna Fáil back on top

RTÉ reports "a second opinion poll in a fortnight has found that Fianna Fáil is the most popular party in the country.

The Millward Brown poll for tomorrow's Sunday Independent, shows Fianna Fáil support at 27%, two points ahead of Fine Gael.

The poll was taken among 1,000 voters between 6-13 February.
In the poll 27% of voters say they are “undecided”. When these are excluded, the poll shows Government parties Fine Gael at 25% and Labour 13%.

Fianna Fáil leads with 27% support with Sinn Féin on 20% and Independents and Others, including the Green Party and United Left Alliance on 16%".

Astonishing! The Irish people have forgotten how "The Republcian Party" (though do not organise in the North of the country) have ruined the economy and almost bankrupt the country.

The Celtic Tiger was real, it began to roar in the early 1990s as an export boom fed into the domestic economy. As tax revenues surged the Fianna Fáil led government spent, spent and spent.....recklessly. Over-spending and buying elections led to competitiveness being eroded. By the turn of the centuary Ireland's competitiveness was eroded to such an extent that the the export boom had receded and the economy began to faulter. The advent of the housing boom meant that nobody noticed.

The Fianna Fáil led govenment's response to the faultering Celtic Tiger and the looming housing bubble was to accelerate the housing boom (tax breaks to developers etc.), increase spending further (especially during election years!) and turn a blind eye on the recklesss lending of the banks. The failure to regulate the banks who were availing of  a limitless supply of cheap money from Europe encouraged further reckless lending. The banks competed against each other to offer gready developers as much as they wanted, no questions asked. Large mortgages were offered to small and medium income families who could scarcely afford them.

Make no mistake about it, the blame for crash in the property maket and subsequent collapse in the economy lies with Fianna Fáil. After several painful austerity budgets we are still left with a €15billion budget deficit, a €64 billion bank bailout debt, a debt to GDP ratio of 120%, loss of sovereignty, further austerity budgets, largescale emigration, high unemployment and a depressed domestic economy.

The people polled by Millward Brown appear to have forgotten all this, I certainly have not!

Constitutional Convention

This weekend sees the first working meeting of the Constitutional Convention taking place. There will be discussions on possible amendments to the Constitution including the lowering of the voting age, reducing the presidential term of ofice from seven to five years and holding Presidential elections at the same time as Euorpean elections.

Discussions on extending voting rights in Presidential elections to Irish citizens living abroad and citizens of the six counties will take place at a later date.

Irish citizens who would like to make a submission to allow citizens of all 32 counties to vote in Presidential elections or on other issues can do so here.

All these issues will be discussed at the Convention where a vote will be taken on whether or not to recommend these changes to the Oireachtas. If passed, the Oireachtas will debate on the recommendations . The Government is committed to having this debate within four months and setting a date for a referendum if it agrees with the recommendations.

The Convention itself is made up of of 66 citizens, who were selected by a polling company to be representative, as well as 33 politicians, including four from the Northern Ireland Assembly, and independent chairman Tom Arnold.

Listed as members of the Convention on the Constitution include four MLA's, Martin McGuinness (SF), Alban Maginness (SDLP), Steven Agnew (Green Party NI) and Stewart Dickson (Alliance). Sinn Fein also have TD's Gerry Adams and Mary Lou McDonald listed. Not surprisingly Northern Unionists declined their invitation.

Sinn Fein will be represented this weekend by substitutes Senator David Cullinane, Senator Kathryn Reilly and MLA Cathríona Ruane. And with SDLP and numerous Fianna Fail representatives, Nationalism appears to be well represented.

The goal for Nationalists from this Convention is clear. The recommendations which will be put forward for debate to the Oireachtas before being put to the people in a referendum need to include changes that would allow citizens of all 32 counties to vote in Presidential elections. Lets see if they can deliver.


Edit: Breaking News has reported that "the Constitutional Convention has voted in favour of lowering the voting age, but has rejected reducing the presidential term.

At its meeting in Dublin, 52% of delegates voted in favour of lowering the voting age.
Of these, 48% were in favour of lowering the age to 16 with 39% selecting 17.
A reduction in the Presidential term from seven to five years was opposed by 57%".

Ireland's Renewable Energy

 

 

Today a Memorandum of Understanding has been singed between the Minister for Communications, Energy and Natural Resources Pat Rabbitte and his British counterpart Ed Davy. The agreement paves to way to allow Irish wind farms to export directly to Britain.

 

Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Mr Rabbitte described the memorandum as a "win win" development.

 

This will enable Britain to buy renewable energy from Ireland helping the country to meet mandatory EU targets on renewable energy and save British consumers £7bn. As well as providing 10% of it's 2020 renewable energy target, it will mean that the British countryside will not be blighted by wind turbines.

 

So what's in it for Ireland?

 

The Irish Times states "the industry generally has been arguing that a deal will provide the trigger for billions of euro in investment with the potential to create tens, if not hundreds, of thousands of jobs". Every unemployed person costs the state in the region of €20,000 directly, through lost money in income tax and social welfare costs. So if this scheme takes 50,000 off the unemployment register, it could be worth €1bn to the state annually.

 

An EU Directive (2009) requires all EU member states to reach a 20% share of energy from renewable sources by 2020. Currently Ireland's share stands at 18%. This memorandum should comfortably bring Ireland over this target (expected to increase to 40% by 2020) and avoid paying penalties for failing to meet the target.

 

Minister Rabbitte has stated that "Ireland has the potential to generate more wind energy than its population could consume". Basic economics tells us that a surplus in supply leads to a reduction in price. Reduced energy costs of course reduce the cost of doing business.
 

While this is obviously very good news for the Irish economy, there are some areas which have not been clarified under this agreement.

 

How much of this energy will be supplied to homes and business in Ireland? The value of oil imports to Ireland is staggering. In 2010 it was estimated that Ireland imported 166,000 bbl/day, costing a whoppong US$5.3bn. In 2008 this figure was US$7.2bn. Naturally the more green energy that is supplied to Irish homes and businesses, the less reliant they are on oil. The lower the reliance on oil, the greater the savings to the Irish economy. So this begs the question, why are we exporting to Britain when the benefits of keeping green energy at home are so great?

Only the state can own electricity networks, However the private developers will effectively be establsihing their own networks by connecting their windfarms to Britain. How much will be the benefit to the state if they are to transfer ownership of the networks on commercial terms?
 

The most fundamental issue with this agreement is Ireland's share of the revenue (or lack of revenue!) generated from the wind tubines. The export of goods and services is not subject to Vat. Therefore the benefit to the exchequer from the sale of Ireland's natural resources, is dependent on tax revenues generated from profits of the energy firms.
 

However, renewable energy firms are not subject to the same taxation measures as non renewable energy companies. So instead of paying the 25% (before tax write-offs) tax rate applied to the profits a company makes from the sale of Irish oil or gas, and an additional Profit Resource Rent Tax (PRRT) of between 5% and 15%, levied on post-tax profits of licences issued after 2007, these wind energy companies are only liable to the standard corporation tax rate of 12.5%.
 

Not only should all profits made on the expolitation of Ireland's natural resources of renewable energy be taxed at the same level as natural resources of finite energy, the

government then needs to legislate to increase this 25% rate to a level that is similar to our European neighbours and remove the scope for tax write offs, loopholes and accountancy tricks which yields some of the lowest government takes in the world according to a report by Indecon Economic Consultants.

Ireland has astounding wealth in natural resources which provides a means to solve our economic problems. But this would require a fundamental change in policy.

Census 2011 - Second Release

On 11 December the second phase of Census 2011 was published. The results included the breakdown of the 'religion or religion brought up in'. In March 2011 on the date of the census, there were 875,717 Protestants and other Christians (48%), 817,385 Catholics (45%) and 117,761 of Other Religion or No Religion (7%).

The 2001 census showed  there were 895,377 Protestants and other Christians (53%), 737,412 Catholics (44%) and 52,478 of Other Religion or No Religion (3%).

The gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 99,633 from 157,965 to 58,332 in ten years. This represents a reduction of nearly 10,000 per year. If current trends continue parity will be achieved at some point in 2016.

In relation to national identity 40% declared themselves to be British, 25% as Irish, and 21% as Northern Irish. Some Unionists argue that the 21% who declared as Northern Irish have made a political statement rather than stating a geographical fact. This is a comfort blanket. While there is a very strong correlation between religion and voting patterns in elections, we simply do not know how the 'Northern Irish' would vote.

Much has been written about this census from various newspaper articles, blogs and discussion forums. However the piece that struck me the most has come from an unlikely source. I am of the opinion that the Irish Independent is an anti-nationalist/republican newspaper. However it was this very newspaper article which has the cop on to know that the current trouble in greater Belfast is not really about the "fleg". No it is about rejecting democracy and changing demographics, change demonstrated in the 2011 census.


image: http://www.facebook.com/#!/LamhDeargUiNeillAbu

Belfast City Hall

On 4th of December 2012 the Union Jack which has flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.

Just over a week before the council vote on 3rd December, the council's strategic policy and resources committee voted 11-9 in favour of removing the flag completely. Nationalists argued that Belfast is a shared space and a neutral environment which should be welcoming for everyone. Symbols such as the British flag they argue, represent only one side of the community. They argued that if the Union Jack was to be flown it should be flown along with the Irish tricolour, otherwise no flag should be flown or an agreed flag should be flown. Unionists would not accept anything less than the Union flag continuing to fly over the City Hall for 365 days a year. As a compromise, The Alliance Party put forward a proposal to fly the flag on 17 designated days per year as recommended by the Equality Commission. And so in the council meeting Nationalists and Alliance voted to bring City Hall into line with Stormont and other government buildings in the North. Unionsits voted against. The motion passed 29 votes to 21.

The wheels were set in motion for this historic council vote in the aftermath of the local government election to Belfast City Council in 2011. When the ballots were counted the results saw Nationalist candidates elected to 24 seats on the council on 48.3% of the vote. Unionists candidates won 21 seats with 36.7% of the vote and The Alliance Party won the remaining 6 seats. It was the first time that Nationalists had won more seats than Unionists in Belfast. The Alliance Party held the balance of power.

 This graph which appears on Nicholas Whyte's excellent Ark website (http://www.ark.ac.uk/) shows the voting patterns since 1973 and shows how rapid demographic change which has occured in Belfast.

Time for a Referendum?

This week there has again been calls for a referendum on a United Ireland. Unionist politicians such as Jeffery Donaldson a.k.a Mystic Meg tell us there is no need to call a referendum as neither the South nor the North will vote in favour. Some Nationalists tell us that we should have a referendum but now is not the right time to have it, as there remains a Unionist majority in Stormont and because of the current economic climate.

In my opinion these Nationalists are correct. Now is not the right time. I do not really think Sinn Féin want a referendum in 2013 or in the short term either. But this is not the point. They know the only way of getting a Green Paper on Irish Unity is to have a referendum called. And when it is called or agreed to, there will be alot of work to do before a date for the referendum can be set. You can't expect people to vote for something in the future if you do not know what you are voting for. How would 26 County voters have voted on the Lisbon Treaty before the terms and conditions of the treaty were set out? If around 30% (as some estimate would be the percentage in favour of a UI if a referendum was held today) were in favour before they even read the treaty, the bookies may have stopped taking bets by the time terms were published.

A series of talks should begin bewteen the Irish government, the British govenment and all parties in order to trash out the Green Paper. An agreement could take several years! So in this light Sinn Fein are correct to call for a referendum now as it needs to be set out what a United Ireland would entail - Federal arrangement?, Fiscal policy?, Health? Education?, Welfare?, Commonwealth membership? etc.

The British government will have an important role to play and they will need to be careful. If they maintain that they have no strategic interest they will agree, should the people vote for reunification, to subsidise the transition period as the North's economy is rebalanced (1 public sector job cut for every 2 private sector job created anyone?). Otherwise disidents can argue that the British purposely positioned the North as a welfare dependent economy in order that the South could not initially afford reunification.

I say initially becasue it is not yet known whether the sum of savings from synergies, removal of duplication of servies etc and the extra revenues from suitable fiscal policies, economies of scale etc that would occur in a UI are greater than the current British subvention to the North of Ireland.

And speaking of the economic argument. To those who suggest that people will not vote for a UI for economic reasons, let me ask them this. Say in a UI, the OAP of the South is to be maintained. How many Unionists (and there are alot of them over the age of 65) will vote No to having their weekly income doubled from £97.65 to €230.30 at todays rates?

Scotland to vote on Independence

Today it was announced that an agreement on a referendum on Scottish Independence has been signed beween the Scottish Government and their English masters. The referendum in 2014 will ask the Scots a straight yes or no question. The exact wording of the ballot is not yet clear.

While this is a matter entirely for the Scottish people there is no doubt that the result of the referendum will have a very significant effect on Ireland. In recent times we have seen Unionist politicians desperately plea for the Scots to vote against independence. Of course this position is not surprising given the fact that a vote in favour of independence would mean a break up of the UK and strike a final blow to the British Empire. It is very difficult to envisage a future Union of England, Wales and a minority in Ireland.

Should Nationalists hope for the Scottish to vote for independence? On one hand the end of an imperialist and opressive Empire built on theft, bloodshed and murder must be welcomed. On the other hand, I am not convinced another English speaking, Independent country with a well educated workforce and fit for purpose fical policy would be good for Ireland. As Enda Kenny stated this week a United Ireland will happen one day regardless of the constitutional position of Scotland.

So what are the chances of Scotland becoming independent? Polls show that support for Scottish independence lies at between 30% and 40%. However, the British Government finds itself in deep recession and struggling with a debt which has long since topped £1 trillion. Deep Tory cuts are inevitable and will be extremely unpopular among ordinary Scots who see the Conservatives as an English party (look at their support in Scotland).

2014 is also the 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn, when Scottish forces led by Robert the Bruce defeated English invaders. Expect to see this film multiple times in 2014

Fianna Fáil - "The Republican Party"

The advent of the Celtic Tiger in the early 1990s saw the beginning of what became a genuinely booming economy in Ireland. Exports began to boom, there was huge foreign direct investment, tax revenues soared, unemployment declined, emigration ceased and wealth increased.

Enter Fianna Fáil. The party increased spending dramatically. By 1996 competitiveness had began to erode as a result of high government expenditure. Around this time houses were beginning to increase in price sharply and activity in the consturction industry was on the rise. Tax revenues from stamp duty, capital gains tax, income tax from construction workers and vat from increased consumer spending due to higher levels of disposable income swelled the exchequer's coffers. Fianna Fáil's response was to add fuel to the fire. Tax incentives were given to gready developers who were encouraged to build and develope more and more and more. Regualtion of the banks was non existent. At best FF turned a blind eye on the reckless lending of bankers. It appeared that anyone could qualify for a mortgage whether they could afford it or not.

As the property secor began to boom, inflation augmented and tax revenues rocketed. Although the general economy was continuing to perform outstandingly, the extra revenues gained from the property boom brought about huge budget surpluses. Regardless of the fact that tax revenue from construction activity is not sustainable, upcoming elections loomed and Fianna Fáil had the resources to stay in power.

Giveaway budgets threw money at everthing. Social Welfare payments increased to world record levels, public sector pay increased expotentially, the health budget increased dramatically without proportional increases in efficiency. Grants were given out like confetti. The FF led government were spending recklessly. The purpose was to buy elections and stay in power. It worked.

While all this was happening competitiveness eroded dramatically. The growth of the property sector disguised the fact that the underlying economy had began to falter.

Had Fianna Fáil governed responsibly and taken advice from independent advisors and economists, spending increases would have been kept at modest levels, the property sector would have been cooled before the bubble began to form and the Celtic Tiger would still be roaring today.

Fianna Fáil have damaged this country hugely. However the fundamentals of the Irish economy are strong. Competitiveness has largely been restored. Exports are booming again. All that is missing is strong domestic demand. This will not return until the programme of austerity is complete. This may take another three or four years. Once austerity is finished, economic stimulus will be required. A new Celtic Tiger will be reborn. The state of the world economy will dictate the strenght of the new Tiger's roar. When the conditions are right for another Celtic Tiger people should not forget the reason why first Celtic Tiger was tamed.

Fianna Fáil claim to be "The Republican Party". Have a look at their website:

On one section of the website there is a notice of the party's annual Wolfe Tone Commemoration. On another section browsers are invited to browse by constituency. This map shows a bold line meandering through the North of Ireland. There are 18 constituencies missing inside the line. A Republican party would not partition a map of Ireland. A Republican part would not organise on a partitionist basis. A Republican party would contest elections in all parts of Ireland. Fianna Fáil are not a Republican Party let alone "The Republican Party".

Census results - First Release - Phase 2

Phase 2 of the census results were published today. The results are effectively a breakdown of Phase 1 results by Local Government Districts (LGD). While today's publication does not give us a breakdown by community background, we can nonetheless break each LGD into Majority Nationalist (>55% CNR community background), Majority Unionist (>55% PUL communtiy background) and Balanced (both CNR & PUL community background 45%-55%) areas based on the 2001 census results.

Catholic majority areas have increased in population by an average of 9.2%. Protestant majority areas have increased in population by an average of 7.4%. Balanced areas have increased by 5.1%. Of course the LGDs in the tables above rely on the 2001 census which is ten years out of date. It is likely that some LGDs belong in a different group. For example the next batch of census results may show that Lisburn is a balanced LGD and at least one of the LGDs in the balanced areas group will have changed to the Catholic Majority group.

The phase 2 results also give us a breakdown of the population per LGD by age. In Nationalist districts west of the Bann and close to the border, the population is predominantly young.  This is demonstrated in the chart below showing the proportion of 0-15 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.





















In Unionist districts to the east, the population is predominantly old. This is demonstrated in the charts below showing the proportion of 65-84 year olds and over 85 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.

Phase 2 of the 2011 census tells us that population growth in CNR community background areas is greater than in PUL community background areas. It also tell us that the CNR districts have predominantly young populations whereas the PUL districts have predominantly elderly populations. While I am uncomfortable speaking of the passing of elderly people in positive terms, it is only natural that as the older generation die off they will be replaced by children of the younger generation. Interesting times ahead.

Digital Switchover

On 24 October analogue transmissions will cease. The digital switchover will mean that RTÉ1, RTÉ2 & TG4 will be freely available throughout all of Northern Ireland.

Those living close to the border will receive RTÉ One, RTÉ Two HD, TV3, TG4, 3e, RTÉ News Now, RTÉjr and RTÉ One +1 through Saorview/Freeview approved set top boxes or TV sets. Those living further afield where Freeview HD-capable set top boxes or TV sets are unable to receive southern transmissions will receive RTÉ 1, RTÉ2 & TG4.

It is unfortunate that viewers in locations far from the border will not have channels TV3, 3e, RTÉ News Now, RTÉjr and RTÉ One +1 on Freeview. RTÉ1, RTÉ2 and TG4 will however be available from transmitters on Black Mountain, Carnmoney Hill and Brougher Mountain. Even so some sports programmes and films may be unavailable to them due to rights restrictions.

Despite this the benefits that the digital switchover will bring cannot be underestimated:

"RTÉ should grow from being the state broadcaster of the south to the national broadcaster of Ireland. People north and south will be able to watch the same programmes, follow the same stories, and interact with each other through panel shows and feedback. It will contribute in a small way to removing some remaining barriers. Once digital TV arrives everyone in Ireland will have equal access to the same broadcasters, and the carefully erected partition of the media will be over" (Horseman February 2010).

RTÉ gaining 1.8 million extra viewers will certainly encourage the broadcaster to include much more Northern topics in it's news and current affairs programmes which should strenghten connections and lead to better understanding among all people in Ireland.

The free availability of TG4 in particular will help Nationalists in their Irish language strategy and push for an Irish Language Act to be introduced.