School Census 2013/2014

Each year the Department of Education Northern Ireland (DENI) releases it's Schools Census relating to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North. This years census was published on the 25th of February. The census data includes a breakdown of the religion of the students. The correlation between religion and voting patters is very strong. Today's children are tomorrows voters. Therefore by examining the demographic changes in our schools we get an indication of how voting patterns are likely to change.

The graph below uses the data to show us the trends over the last 12 years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'

The trend in prior years has seen a gradual increase in the Catholic proportion of students in our schools. Protestants and Other Christians have been in steady decline. The Others have also shown a steady increase.

The Schools Census for 2013/2014 shows us that this trend continues. In the school year 2013/2014, the statistics show the make up to be: Catholics 51.1% (up 0.2%), Protestant 39.2% (down 0.4%) and Others 9.7% (up 0.2%).

The 'Others' of course consist of Non Christian, No Religion and Not Recorded.

In the 2011 Census the 'Others' consisted of Other Religions, No Religion and Not Stated. NISRA allocated a proportion of  'Others' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in) as follows:

• For children aged 5-11: 21.1% to 'Catholic' and 22.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.

• For children/adolescents aged 12-18: 23.1% to 'Catholic' and 27.5% to 'Protestant and other  
  Christian'.

Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.2%. Students of a Protestant community background has increased to 41.5%. Others have decreased to 5.3%

Note the sudden drop in the Protestant/Other Christians is due to the change of using the out of date 2001 data for reallocation with the much more accurate data from the 2011 census.

Leaving aside the 5.3% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 56.2%/43.8%

Catholics soon to have majority in Northern Ireland

An interesting video is after appearing on Youtube which predicts the community background of the two traditions in  2031.

Equality Commission 23rd Monitoring Report

The Equality Commission has published it's 23rd Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce in Northern Ireland for the year 2012. Protestants represented 53.4% of the workforce, down by 0.3% on 2011. Catholics in the workforce stood at 46.6%, an increase of 0.3% from the 2011 figure of 46.3%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph:

The reasons why this graph is converging are threefold.

Firstly, there continues to be more Catholic applicants to the monitored workforce than Protestants.  In 2012 the Catholic percentage stood at 51.6% and the Protestant percentage was 48.4%.

Secondly the numbers of Catholic appointees to the workforce in 2012 again exceeded their Protestant counterparts. In 2012 the Catholic percentage stood at 50.9% and the Protestant percentage was 49.1%.

Finally the proportion of Protestant leavers of the workforce in 2012 continues to be higher than the proportion of Catholic leavers.  In 2012 the Protestant percentage stood at 52.1% and the Catholic percentage was  47.9%.

Haass No Deal

"NI talks end w/o accord; gaps persist past, parades, flags; will explore if a last push justified; hope so, as all would gain from pact" - Richard N. Haass (@RichardHaass).

As predicted there is no deal, no agreement. No post mortem is being carried out as "the patient is still alive".

There is no point in a "last push". Unionism is not capable of compromise. Full stop.

On flags Nationalism holds a position that the Irish flag should fly freely from all public buildings throughout Ireland. The starting position adopted by Nationalists in the Haass talks was one flag or no flag. This was already a compromise. Nationalism was prepared to compromise further on this position. Unionism wanted to fly the Union Jack 365 days a year. A bottom line, not an inch! So much for the "Democratic" Unionist Party!

On parading the Nationalist position is there should be no sectarian marches through Nationalist areas. Compromise was made and Loyalist parades were to be facilitated after a process of dialogue. Unionists even objected to a Haass suggestion that "songs or hymes that could cause offense" be omitted.

On the past, Unionists could not agree that there are two narratives on the past.

The North is a failed entity. Brian Groom (@GroomB) on Twitter has produced evidence. Time for change.

Scottish Independence 'White Paper'

This week Alex Salmond, the talented politician and Scottish First Minister launched a White Paper on independence, outlining the overriding reasons why Scotland should leave the UK and become a separate state. The blueprint for independence details the policies that the SNP would hope to pursue post independence and outlines positions in relation to currency, EU membership, defence, tax, childcare and welfare.

Of course it should be said that the decision on whether Scotland should be an independent country is an issue for the Scottish people. However, the decision of the people of Scotland is likely to have an effect on us here in Ireland.

I personally do not see how an Independent Scotland would be of benefit to Ireland. Ireland has a unique position of being an independent English speaking country within the EU and Eurozone. It has the economic levers to attract investment and tailor economic policy to the needs of the economy. There is a readily available highly educated workforce pouring out of our Universities.

Scottish independence is a threat to this unique position and to the huge FDI in which Ireland receives. Take for example the Europe Asia Trading Hub (EATH) which has been approved planning permission and is to be built in Athlone. Ireland beat off stiff opposition from other European countries for this hugely economically significant project. It's not over the line yet as 'time and space is being afforded to attract the necessary investment'. However, how would one feel if an independent Scotland made a play for this facility and snatched it from Ireland at the last minute? Could an independent Scotland with new pro agri-food policies try to replicate the Glanbia dairy plant currently under construction in the South East, threatening the potential boost to the rural economy and creation of 1,600 jobs?

Of course in terms of the North there are those that believe that an independent Scotland would mean a break up of the UK which further threatens Northern Ireland's attachment to England. Does it thought?

Unionists seem to think so. In fact Unionist politicians are absolutely bricking it at the thought of Scotland gaining it's independence. Why is this? The more I hear and read of their desperation for Scotland to remain in the UK the more I am rooting for the 'Yes' side.

Sammy Wilson is worried

Peter Robinson feels the future of the Union is at stake

Reg Empey warns Scottish Independence could re-ignite the troubles (and turn the North into West Pakistan!)

Trimble accuses Scottish Nationalists of doing voilence to peoples identity

Lord Kilclooney advocates partition of Scotland if 'Yes' side win

European Elections 2014 - Preview

At the 2013 DUP conference last weekend there was not one mention of the on-going Haass talks on the contentious issues of flags, parading and dealing with the legacy of the past. Instead the DUP set out it's stall for the upcoming elections in May.

No decision has been made on whether they will run one candidate or two in the Euro election. Peter Robinson tells us the decision will be based on what ever is best for Unionism. In other words Peter is telling us he will not do anything which will risk handing the third seat to Nationalists.

The DUP will strike a deal with the UUP and agree to run one candidate. This will allow the UUP's Jim Nicholson pole position to hold the third seat. In return for this concession to the UUP, the DUP will demand co-operation/Unionist Unity or agreement from the UUP not to stand candidates for the marginal seats in the 2015 Westminster elections. The UUP will agree as loosing their European seat will leave the party without a single MP or MEP. This could be a death knell for the party.

Sinn Féin may themselves very well be considering running a second candidate (probably Belfast based) to run alongside Martina Anderson. This may run the risk that Alex Attwood of the SDLP will take the Nationalist seat. However with the STV system this is unlikely. SF voters will transfer to SF candidates. The announcement of two SF running candidates would also put it up to the DUP to do likewise.

The decision to run one or two candidates may come down to Psephology (election science) whereby a general rule is that if a single candidate is likely to receive a quota of 1.55, it is likely that two candidates could be elected with the help of transfers.

Already confirmed to be fighting for the maximum of two Unionist seats are Dianne Dodds (DUP), Jim Nicholson (UUP) and Henry Reilly (UKIP). It is expected that John McCallister will run for NI21.The PUP have indicated that they will run a candidate as has Jamie Bryson, the outspoken 'fleg' protest organiser (first to loose £5k deposit?). The TUV being the TUV will not want to further fragment the Unionist vote will stand aside and give their backing to another candidate (probably Henry Reilly).

So with a rather crowded Unionist field of six or seven candidates as well the 'Others' being represented by Ross Brown of the Green Party and an unconfirmed Alliance candidate, there will be talk/scaremongering in the months ahead about the possibility of Nationalists winning the third seat.

In the 2009 European Elections Unionists received 237,436 votes accounting for 49% of total votes. Nationalists received 204,673 (42.2%). A difference of 32,763. Turnout was low at 42.8%.

Will a congested Unionist field result in any significant number of votes being lost in the transfer system of STV due to voters not transferring all the way down the line?

What effect will a low turnout have? Turnout has been declining in Nationalist areas at a faster pace than in Unionist areas. Will this trend continue?

What effect will voter apathy have? The recent drive to get names on the new Elector Register showed Unionist areas had more success. Greater voter apathy among Catholics/Nationalists? Has the decision by Belfast City Council to reduce the flying of the Union Jack over the City Hall had motivated the PUL community to turnout in greater numbers to the polling booths?

And of course what effect will demographic change since the last election have?

These are the factors which will determine who wins the all important third seat.

Demographic Timebomb

The 2011 Census revealed the gap between the two main blocks had decreased from 157,965 to 58,332 in ten years, the equivalent of a reduction of 9,963 per year.

If the trends of the last ten years are to continue, all things being equal, we can calculate the date in which parity is reached.

If the gap is closing by 9,963 per year, it is closing by 27.3 per day (9,963/365). With the gap of 58,332 it will take 2,136 days for parity to be achieved (58,332/27.3).

The Census was carried out on 27 March 2011. 2,136 days on from the this date is 30 January 2017!

Of course people under the age of 18 cannot vote. Excluding under 18s the gap between the main blocks in Census 2011 is 98,561. The gap in the 2001 census was 182,202. Between the last two census' the gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 8,364 per year or 22.9 per day. The gap of 98,561 divided by the change per day gives us 4,301 days. 4,301 days on from 27 March 2011 is 04 January 2023!

  

Dream Team

Ireland and the FAI have got their man. With speculation mounting and betting suspended it now appears to be a badly kept secret. Martin O'Neill will be unveiled as Ireland manager on Monday. The twitter machine has been into overdrive with news that MON is likely to unveil Roy Keane as his number two.

While Martin O'Neill's appointment is being welcomed by fans from Derry to Kerry, the appointment of Keane as assistant is proving to be divisive. It has stoked up tensions of the 'Civil War' which ensued following the Saipan debacle. The country seemed to be split down the middle as to who was at fault for the Manchester United captain's departure from World Cup 2002 in Japan and South Korea.

My own opinion of Saipan is that Mick McCarthy, Roy Keane and the FAI were all equally culpable. However, we are talking about a World Cup nearly 12 years in the memory. It's firmly in the past and it is time to move on.

O'Neill ticks all the right boxes. He is a good coach and has an excellent CV. His record at Leister City and Celtic is exceptional. At Sunderland he did not have his sidekick John Robertson by his side, after a positive start results began to flounder and Martin was shown the door. His replacement Paolo Di Canio's short reign and poorer points average is testament to the fact that Sunderland were wrong to sack O'Neill.

The partnership with Keane could be a masterstroke or it could all end in tears. There are fears of a media circus where the reporters are more interested in the outspoken Keane's comments rather than asking MON about the team and squad.

For this to work Keane needs to keep a relatively low profile and stay in the shadow of O'Neill who will be the 'Gaffer' after all. Keane also needs to realise he will not be calling the shots and do the job of an assistant manager rather than a joint manager. Marco Tardelli (lets not forget was also a high profile right hand man of Trapatonni) filled this role well.

Of course the FAI will be very happy in getting their man. The appointment of Keane as number two will be seen as an added bonus as it is bound to have a positive effect on attendances and generate much needed additional revenue for the organisation as it strives to clear it's Aviva Stadium debt.

There is no doubt with the expanded Euros Ireland have a great chance of making the short trip to France for Euro 2016. Ireland are second seeds in the 23 February draw (provided Romania don't win their two WC playoff games). With the top two in each group qualifying automatically and the safety net of a seeded playoff for a third place finish, qualification will be expected.

Let's wait until Monday for an official announcement and then get behind the new Management team starting with the upcoming international friendly against Latvia on 15 November at Lansdowne Road.

Possible Ireland starting XI
Westwood
Coleman Dunne O'Shea Wilson
Gibson McCarthy Whelan
McGeady Houlihan
Long/Keane

Why is Unionism in Crisis?

The storming of Belfast City Hall, anti-democracy flag protests/rioting, Loyalist rioting in Ardoyne and Royal Avenue in Belfast, Castlereagh and the dramatic U-turn by Peter Robinson and the DUP on the Maze Peace Centre. It is clear that Unionism is in crisis.

Why is Unionism in crisis?

Flags, Symbols, Parading and The Past

September sees the beginning of all party talks to be chaired by US Diplomat and former US Envoy to Northern Ireland Dr Richard Haas. A set of recommendations will be brought forward before the end of the year on contentious issues such as Flags, Symbols, Parading and The Past.

Flags
The starting position on the Nationalist side in relation to the official flying of flags from public buildings is likely to be a demand for equal status for the Tri-Colour to that of the Union Jack. There are two communities in the North. The Irish Tri-Colour is the flag of the Irish Nation (32 counties) and represents the Nationalist Community in the North in the same way as the Union Jack represents the Unionist Community. If we are to have equality, the flags of both communities must be officially recognised. If flags are to be flown from public buildings then either both flags, no flags or an agreed neutral flag should be flown.

There should be strong regulation against displaying flags from lamp posts and street furniture.

The Unionist line will that Northern Ireland is an integral part of the United Kingdom. The Union Flag is the official flag of the UK and should be flown proudly over all public buildings 365 days a year. The Irish Tri-Colour is the flag of a foreign country and has no place being flown from official buildings in Northern Ireland. Unionists will object strongly to any suggestion that the Irish Tri-Colour should receive official recognition.

They will also resist any attempts to place restrictions from hanging flags from lamp posts or street furniture.

Possible outcomes include:

1. The Union Jack should be flown from all public buildings 365 days a year.

2. The Union Jack should be flown from all government buildings on designated days only.

3. It will be at the discretion of the Local District Council whether the Union Jack will be flown 365 days a year, on designated days only or not at all.

4. Where votes cast for designated Unionists in each Local District Council election are twice that of votes cast for designated Nationalists, the Union Jack should be flown 365 days a year. Where votes cast for designated Nationalists in each Local District Council election are twice that of votes cast for designated Unionists, the Union Jack will not be flown. Where neither scenario has occurred the Union Jack will be flown on designated days only (or something to that effect).

5. Either no flag or a neutral flag should be flown from all government buildings.

6. The Irish Tri-Colour will receive official recognition and should be flown from all public buildings along with the Union Jack

The independent adjudicators led by Richard Haass will conclude that official recognition for the Union Flag is required given that the North is currently part of the UK. They will also conclude that as we do not have a joint sovereignty situation it is not appropriate to officially recognise the Irish Tri-colour (much to the annoyance of Nationalists). The adjudicators will also try to avoid a zero sum solution with one side the clear 'winner' and the other side the 'loser'. This leaves options 2, 3 & 4 as realistic recommendations.

Given the Unionist and Loyalist reaction to the democratic decision to fly the Union Jack from Belfast City Hall on designated days only and the traditional "not an inch", "No Surrender" and "chipping away at our Britishness/cultural war" mantra, it is difficult to envisage Unionists accept anything other that option 1.

No side can get everything they want, that's why it's called a negotiation. Unionist won't get option 1 and will push for option 2, relishing an opportunity to have the Union Jack forced upon CRN communities on designated days even if it means it will not be flown 365 days a year in PUL dominated areas.

The independent panel will not recommend option 2 as it would be unacceptable to Nationalists who have majorities in half of the Local District Councils. The Unionist side will draw the line here and I predict that they will walk from the talks.

They may come back to the talks if concessions can be made in other areas as part of the overall negotiations (disbandment of the Parades Commission?). Option 3 may then be a runner or some variation to option 4.

As for displaying flags from every lamp post, god only knows what solutions will be on the table and how any determinations can/will be enforced.

Symbols
The same arguments used in the flag debate will be used when discussions turn to symbols. The argument that there should not be official recognition for the Irish flag as the North is part of the UK might work for flags but this will not wash in terms of symbols. Stormont, City Halls, County Councils, Street names, hospitals, bridges, statues etc. are almost entirely Unionist. To reflect the cultural diversity of the six counties this is going to have to change.

Parading
The best thing to do with Parades is to ban them all. Unfortunately this scenario is unlikely. Nationalists as a minimum will look for parades, which seek to march through areas predominantly inhabited by residents from the another community to be prohibited. People's right to assemble should not over rule residents rights to live in peace and free from sectarian coat trailing exercises.

The main area of contention is likely to be the issue of parades in 'shared spaces' such as town centres. The independent Parades Commission should be retained for rulings on contentious parades in shared spaces.

Of course the Unionist position will be that the Orange and Loyal Orders should be able to march where they want, when they want. It is the "Queens Highway" after all! They will demand the Parades Commission is disbanded.

Other than accept that a new body made up of residents and parading representatives to make determinations on contentious parades, I cannot see Unionists compromise on parading. Nationalists may have to concede here if they can achieve concessions on flags, symbols and The Past.

The Past
Are there two narratives on the past or is there one? Both sides will disagree but can they agree to disagree? Unionist views on Republican commemorations of their dead are perfectly clear. This despite the completely hypocritical position they hold in relation to Remembrance Sunday (honouring British army dead responsible for as many acts of 'terror' and atrocities as any militia) and even UVF commemorations in Bangor and Colraine or in fact most Orange parades which have bands named after Loyalist paramilitaries.