We've Struck Oil!

After decades of being told that Ireland has no natural resources, years of digging and after some 215 barron holes, in March of this year Ireland's first commercial oil well was discovered by Providence Resources off the Cork coast. Initial estimates stated that the Barryroe oil well contained between 373 and 893 million barrels of oil. However today Providence has stated that the oil field may contain up to 1.6 billion barrels of oil, four times the original estimate!

We are rich, rich I tell you, rich beyond our wildest dreams! Not quite. Given that all previous attempts to find oil off the Irish coast have been fruitless the Irish government, in an attempt to attract exploration and investment has had to set a relatively low tax levy of 25% on profits companies make from oil and gas found in Irish territories. For the same reason the state does not receive Royalties from oil and gas discoveries.

Joe.ie reports that even with the low tax levies and lack of royalties, the State could benefit to the tune of a whopping €100 billion. Others stress that significant losses on Providence's books will be written off against profits made on the Barryroe oil well hugely reducing the benefit to the Irish exchequer.

Even if the latter is correct, not all is lost. It is likely that the Government will increase the 25% tax and introduce royalties in order to benefit from further discoveries but not to an extent that will scare off future investment, exploration and drilling.

But is there more oil and gas and if so why has it not been found previously? Well it is generally accepted that the twenty fist centuary has shown enormous advancements in technology. If it is there they will find it. But is it there? David Horgan MD of Petrel Resources plc certainly think so.

"The oil world has been transformed in recent years: despite fluctuations, the oil price remains high. Ireland’s fiscal terms are competitive and legal title is secure.

"Technology has leaped ahead on several fronts, reducing costs and risks. The combination of three dimensional seismic surveys and directional drilling allow explorers to map and drain complex reservoirs.

"The planned development of the 1981 Ballyroe discovery, after a dramatic increase in reserves, shows what is now possible. We believe that the Irish offshore will be increasingly attractive to investors."

Census results - First Release - Phase 1

The first figures from the 2011 census have been relased by NISRA.

I have taken some of the more interesting statistics that have been released and will expand in due course.

"In 2001, a person aged 35 would have been in the older half of the population in Northern Ireland. In 2011 a person would need to have been aged 38 to be in the older half of the population"

We can take from this that the age of 37 represents the median age of the population (half the population is aged under 37 years and half the population is aged over 37 years). This is interesting because the 2001 census showed that the 'tipping point' between the two main religous groups was age 27 (Census table s306a). That is, those people under the age of 27 were majority Catholic and those over the age of 27 were majority Protestant. All things being equal we can assume that the 'tipping point' has increased 10 years to the age of 37, the exact same as the median age. This would mean that parity has been reached between the two main religous groups in the North. However all is not equal. We know that the older half of the populus have a larger Protestant majority than the Catholic majority among the younger half. By how much? We do not know exactly. All will be revealed when Phase 2 & 3 of the census are released later in the year.

What we do know is what the religious breakdown of the 'big three' blocks was in 2001. Table S306 of the 2001 census tells us that Protestants made up 53.1% of the population, Catholics made up 43.8% and Others made up the remaining 3.1%. We aslo know of demographic factors such as a high Catholic birth rate, a Catholic majority in our Schools (53%) and Universities (66%). We know that 51% of applicants and 52% of appointees to the workforce are Catholic. We know that the 2001 census revealed that Protestants make up 66% of the 65 years and older age cohort. This is reflected in the higher death rate in majority Protestant areas.

We are less certain of the other major factor which will effect the full census results. Migration. It is clear that there has been a sharp increase in immigration but what effect this will have on the general population remains to be seen. In terms of Emigration one can assume that as the economy has fallen the numbers of young people moving abroad to work has sharply increased. Again we will have to wait to see what effect this will have on the population but my guess that emigration of the two main communities in the North is similar.

Therefore when Phase 2 & 3 figures are released it is likely that the Catholic and Other percentages will show an increase on the 2001 figure. This would mean that the Protestant figure will decrease.

The reason for the partition of Ireland was to manufacture a Protestant majority in the North. A decrease of 3.1% or more on the 2001 figure will mean that the purpose of the sectarian carve up of Ireland is defunct as the Protestant population will have fallen below 50%.

Table 1 – Census Year Population Estimates by Age (1911 and 2011) Age Group			1911				2011
Number		%			Number			%
0-15	404,400			32%		379,300			21%
16-39	467,500			37%		593,800			33%
40-64	267,700			21%		574,000			32%
65-84	106,900			9%		232,300			13%
85+	4,100			0.3%		31,400			1.7%
Total	1,250,500			100%		1,810,900			100%

(Census 2011)

School's Census

In February every year the School Census relating to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North is published. The department of education has publised a spreadsheet of the religious background of students here. The graph below uses the data in the spreadsheet to show us the trends over the last ten years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'.

The trend is clear to see. The Catholic percentage of the student population which has been increasing year on year remains steady at 50.9%. The Protestant/Other Christian percentage has been in decline and now stands at 39.9%.

No doubt some would cling to the fact that the 'Other' group (9.2%) has increased in an equal but opposite direction to that of 'Protestant/Other Christian'. This of course would be to assume that the 'Other' group (which includes Non Christian and Other/No Religion/Not Recorded) is made up entirely of students from Protestant communtiy backgrounds. Logically this is not ture. However according to NISRA Protestants are more likely not to declare their religion.

In the 2001 census NISRA allocated children and teenagers of the 'Other/No Religion group' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in)as follows

•For children aged 5-11, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 24.3% to 'Catholic', 40.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 35.2% to 'None'

•For children aged 12-18, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 25.4% to 'Catholic', 46.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 27.6% to 'None'

Using these figues to allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.0%. Students of a Protestant community background has decreased to 43.5%

UEFA award for Ireland Fans

Ireland Fans which have been labelled the "best fans in the world" are to have their contribution to Euro 2012 recognised by UEFA when Michael Platini travels to Dublin to present the award.

While some might see the award as slightly patronising given the dissappointing performances of the team, albeit against the two teams which have gone on to contend the final, most welcome the award. No doubt it is entirely deserved as an estimated 35,000 Ireland supporters from each of the 32 counties flooded into Poznan and Gdansk.

The verdict:

The mayor of Gdansk is to nominate Irish fans for a UEFA fair play award
Singing green army leave as legends - Irish news, Euro 2012 - Independent.ie

A spokesman said the Irish drink a lot of beer, but were no trouble, and were in a word, "wonderful."
Singing green army leave as legends - Irish news, Euro 2012 - Independent.ie

About as threatening as a kindergarten school trip, their purpose is enjoyment rather than intimidation; they are here to have fun rather than to act out some historical domination fantasy
Euro 2012: Ireland fans bring colour and kindness to P oznan - Telegraph

Legacy of the Irish in Poznan
http://www.youtube.com/watch?gl=IE&hl=en&client=mv-google&v=Gm-1mCz_eUk&sns=tw&nomobile=1

Opinion of Spanish and Polish supporters
Video: Irish fans in Gdansk in full voice as others hail magnificent support · TheJournal.ie

Unlike other international teams in Ireland and Britain, Ireland supporters continue to make headlines for all the right reasons. Hopefully the World Cup in Brazil in 2014 will allow the team to give the supporters the results they deserve.

Economic argument part 1

This week the UK Treasury has dashed hopes of a cut in the Corporation Tax (CT) in Northern Ireland from the UK rate of 24% to 12.5% to match the rate of the Republic of Ireland. This of course does not come as any surpirse. There are two main reasons why the Westminster Government and Treasury would not/will not agree to a cut in CT.

One reason is that if NI received a special dispensation to cut it's rate of CT, Scotland, Wales and North East England would be up in arms if they are not also allowed a similar cut. The other major reason is that if the cut in CT for NI was enforced there would also be nothing to stop large companies based in London and other parts of Britain from relocating in Northern Ireland to avail of the lower rates and pay less taxes resulting in fundamental job losses in greater London and other parts of Britain as well as decimating the tax take from Corporation Tax for the UK exchequer.

Calls for a reduction in CT in the North demonstrate the weakness of the Northern Ireland economy. The reason for this weak economy boils down to simple economic policy. Economic policy of course is made up largely of fiscal policy. In NI fiscal policy is controlled by London. The UK government determines fiscal and economic policy on the basis of policy decisions which will maximise the tax take for the UK as a whole. Not surprisingly this is entirely based on what is in the best interests of the greater London and South East England region. The UK government can afford to charge high Corporation Tax in London as being one of the major cities of the world and a financial powerhouse companies need to have a base in London regardless of the taxes imposed. The UK government can also charge other high taxes such as airport passenger duty (APD) for similar reasons without affecting tourism or business in the greater London area.

While British economic policy may indeed maximise the tax revenues for the UK exchequer it has done nothing to prevent a basket case economy that has developed in the North with a public sector which employs almost a third of its total workforce, compared with 21 per cent across the UK and less than 20% in the Republic. By throwing thousands of poorly paid public sector jobs and a block grant of some £6 billion at Northern Ireland the UK government has largely succeeded in disguising the real state of the local economy in Northern Ireland. The truth is that NI will never reach its potential as part of the UK and will forever point the begging bowl towards London.

Of course there is an alternative, an alternative where economic and fiscal policy would be focused on what is in the best interests of the region, economic and fiscal policy which would allow Northern Ireland to reach its undoubted potential. The economic opportunities and strenghts of Northern Ireland are almost identical to that of the Republic of Ireland. In this context a United Ireland makes economic sense. An all Ireland economic policy would have huge benefits for the six north eastern counties of Ireland. CT of 12.5% would create between 58,000  and  90,000 private sector jobs in the medium term. The abolishment of APD and agressive marketing of Ireland as one country would see the north reach it's vast tourism potential creating thousands of additional jobs in this industry vital to Ireland's economy.

These are just two examples of how focused economic policy that would be brought about in a United Ireland would allow Northern Ireland to dramatically increase foreign direct investment, tourism numbers leading to mass job creation allowing NI to  rebalance the economy (in terms of reducing public sector jobs and creating private sector jobs) and create wealth. Economic policy of the Republic of Ireland implemented in Northern Ireland would allow the region to reach its undoubted vast potential which cannot happen so long as NI is subject to UK economic policy tailored to meet the best interests of South East England. .

Equality Commission 21st Monitoring Report

On 16 December 2011 the Equality Comission published its 21st Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce in Northern Ireland for the year 2010. Protestants represented 54.1% of the workforce, down by 0.5% in 2009. Catholics in the workforce stood at 45.9%, an increase of 0.5% from the 2009 figure of 45.4%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph






The reason why this graph is converging is due to the fact that the numbers of Catholic appointees to the workforce in 2010 was 52.0% which is significantly greater than the amount of Catholics in the overall workforce. The numbers of Protestants appointed  to the workforce was 48.0% which is significantly lower than their representation in the entire workforce.

The Equality Commission Report for 2010 also shows us the composition of applicants to join the workforce by community background. In 2009 the Catholic percentage stood at 50.7% and the Protestant percentage was 49.3%.





In 2009, for the first time ever the number of Catholics seeking employment was greater than the number of Protestants (by 10,465). Currently there is a difference of 8.2% between the two blocks, a decrease of 1% point from 2009. If this trend continues we can expect further 'greening' of the workforce in the years ahead and parity reached in 2018. As two thirds of students in NI universities and 53.1% of students in NI schools are from a Catholic/Nationalist background the trend could even accelerate.

Registrar General Annual Report 2010

The 2010 Annual Report of the Register Generals Annual Report for 2010 was published today. It provides a wealth of information relating to the demographic make up of Northern Ireland.

Information provided includes births in 2010, deaths in 2010 and as well as information on marriages, divorces and civil partnerships.

Although the report does not determine the community background of those born and deceased in 2010, Appendix 2 provides details of the breakdown of births and deaths by District Council. We know that of Northern Ireland's 26 District Councils can be divided into 11 majority Catholic/Nationalist Districts, 12 majority Protestant/Unionist Districts and 3 evenly balanced Districts (i.e. no community has a greater representation than 55%).

The table below shows the birth and death rates for each District Council in each of the three groups using the data provided in the report




The average bith rate of the Catholic majoity areas in 2010 is 14.4 (per 1,000 population) which is 11.6% higher than the Protestant birth rate of 12.9. The average birth rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 14.1

The average death rate in Protestant dominated district councils in 2010 was 8.4 (per 1,000 population) compared to 7.1 in Catholic majority district councils which is a greater figure by 18.3%. The average death rate in Northern Ireland as a whole was 8.0.

It must be noted that the three groups in the table are based on the 2001 census and it is likely that some of District Councils actually belong in a different group. For example Lisburn probably belongs in the balanced group. However the 2011 census results will provide the facts.

These trends are consistent over the last number of years as shown by the tables below.

The cat is in the sack!

As Mr. Trappatonni says the cat is in the sack and the sack is closed. In other words Ireland have qualified  for the European Championship 2012, the first major tournament in ten years and first European Championship in 24 years.

Who can forget Euro 88 and Ray Houghton's header to give Ireland a famous victory over the Old Enemy in Stuttgart or Ronnie Whelan's wonder volley against the Soviet Union in Hanover.

Ireland supporters always travel in huge numbers and it will be no different next June with Polish "phrasebooks and jump  leads for the van" being sought in all 32 Counties. For those who can't make the epic journey to Polkraine, there will be football barbeques and parties from Derry to Cork and Galway to Dublin as the boys in green take part in this prestigous festival of football.

This is a much needed boost for the country and with players of the calibre of Given, Dunne, O'Shea, McGeady, Duff, Gibson and Keane and a world class manager in Giovanni Trappatoni there is much reason to be optimistic of the nations prospects this summer.

Come on You Boys In Green!!

The Penny Has Dropped!

In an interview with The Times newspapeer reported by RTÉ, the leader of Irish Unionism Peter Robinson has stated that the future of NI as a part of the UK will depend on Catholic votes and that he could be the last Unionist First Minister.

Asked whether he could be Northern Ireland's last unionist first minister, Mr Robinson said: "Yes, but the assumption behind your question is that the Catholic population will not vote for unionist parties."

Of course Catholics do not generally vote for Unionist parties so Mr. Robinson would appear to be clutching at straws. Even if Protestant alienation of Catholics was to discontinue, this would be unlikely to change.

The article implies the reasoning behind Mr Robinsons comments as due to demographic change backed up by interesting statistics

"A 2001 census recorded the Northern Irish population as 53.1% Protestant and 43.8% Catholic, with the 2011 census expected to show a narrowing of the gap.



The Times cited a recent national audit showing that when asked to state their religion, 54% of boys and 55% of girls described themselves as Catholic.


Figures out last month found that 49% of Northern Irish students at the province's universities were Catholics, while 35% were Protestants".

The Unionist leader is clearly resigned to the fact that a Catholic plurality in the North is inevitable in the not too distant future and acknowledges that the very survival of the orange state will be detetermined by the very people that were to be excluded in the "Protestant state for a Protestant people".

For the Leader of Unionism to publicly asknowledge that NI is on the verge a Catholic majority is truely momentous. The penny has dropped.

Student demographics

This week we heard remarkable allegations from Jim Allister and Gregory Campbell that Northern Ireland Protestants were under represented in NI Universities. The reason for this we were told was due to the failure of Universities to target Protestants. These allegations came on the back of figures released which show that just one third of Northern Ireland students are Protestant.

Indeed Allister even published a press release on his TUV website to higlight the issue. Not only did Allister take issue with the fact that there were less Protestant students than Catholics, the tone of the press release also did not seem enamoured by the fact that there were many more students studying in NI from the Republic of Ireland than there was from Great Britain.

Reasons for this "imbalance" have been put attributed to a number of factors including:

• NI Universities failure to target Protestant students
• Protestants are more likely to study in GB than Catholics
• More ROI students than GB students studying in NI
• A "chill factor" for Protestants in NI Universities
• Working class Protestants do not attend University
• Catholic schools achieve higher standards academically

However, an article subsequently published in the Belfast Telegraph appears to disprove these claims and points to changing demographics as the reason why Catholics outnumber Protestants in University.

While claims that Universities target students based on religion rather than solely based on acedemic achievement  and claims of a "chill factor" are no more worthy of response as having to explain why ROI students are more likely to attend college in Ireland in greater numbers than those in Britain, the theory of a "Protestant brain drain" merits consideration.

Data has shown that 45% of Protestants and 41% of Catholics attend universities in GB, figures which "are almost neck in neck". This rubbishes the theory that Protestants are far more likely to study in GB than their Catholic counterparts. 

Population statistics show that 51% of pupils in NI schools are Catholic whereas only 37% are Protestant.

"Statistics from both the Departments of Education and Employment and Learning show that the percentage of Protestant pupils attending university reflects demographics. There are now 43,000 more Catholic pupils in our schools — from nursery to sixth form — than Protestants. Dr Peter Shirlow, an academic from Queen’s University Belfast, said the percentage of Catholics and Protestants attending our universities reflected “the share of what the population is”.