Sunday, March 5, 2017

Crocodile Rock

Well this has been coming. The premise of this blog is that demographic change will be translated into political change. We had not seen this in the elections cycle from 2014 to 2016 due to Nationalist voter apathy. However Nationalists have awoken from their slumber. Turnout matched and slightly exceeded turnout of Unionists.

The result was 40 seats for Nationalists and 40 for Unionists. Not only did Unionism loose its majority in the Assembly, it lost a plurality. First preference votes showed Nationalism at 42% with Unionism at 44%. There was only 20k votes between Unionism and Nationalism and a mere 1,000 votes between the DUP and Sinn Fein. The times they are a changing.

The challenge for Nationalism now is to push on from this and not become complacent. There are still over 300k Catholics and 600k Protestants who did not vote for a Nationalist party. These are the people who should be targeted.


  1. Well done to Gerry Adams and Michelle O'Neill.

    1. A new generation has started to vote..
      This is a passage from the Newsletter today..

      "Even if unionism rallies in a future election and regains its majority – as may well happen in circumstances more favourable to the DUP and UUP – the pro-Union population of Northern Ireland has had a glimpse into their likely future if the unionist parties cannot attract non-traditional unionists to support them. The slowly but inexorably changing demographics of Northern Ireland, with a growing Catholic population, have major implications for the future makeup of Stormont. In such circumstances, Sinn Fein has multiple reasons to not only be cheered by the result of this election, but to see for itself an inbuilt demographic advantage in every future election as more and more voters who more likely to vote for Sinn Fein than for any other party join the electoral register.

      Read more at:"

  2. Some interesting reads..


  4. Enda, what's your methodology for calculating nationalist and unionist percentage turnout?

    The conventional wisdom of the pundits (who called nationalism dead a year ago) is that the election result was due to a higher nationalist turnout.

  5. Simply estimated number of Catholics and Protestants divided by number of votes for Nationalist and Unionist parties respectively. So it includes people not registered and excludes Alliance/Green voters.

  6. For your consideration.