No decision has been made on whether they will run one candidate or two in the Euro election. Peter Robinson tells us the decision will be based on what ever is best for Unionism. In other words Peter is telling us he will not do anything which will risk handing the third seat to Nationalists.
The DUP will strike a deal with the UUP and agree to run one candidate. This will allow the UUP's Jim Nicholson pole position to hold the third seat. In return for this concession to the UUP, the DUP will demand co-operation/Unionist Unity or agreement from the UUP not to stand candidates for the marginal seats in the 2015 Westminster elections. The UUP will agree as loosing their European seat will leave the party without a single MP or MEP. This could be a death knell for the party.
Sinn Féin may themselves very well be considering running a second candidate (probably Belfast based) to run alongside Martina Anderson. This may run the risk that Alex Attwood of the SDLP will take the Nationalist seat. However with the STV system this is unlikely. SF voters will transfer to SF candidates. The announcement of two SF running candidates would also put it up to the DUP to do likewise.
The decision to run one or two candidates may come down to Psephology (election science) whereby a general rule is that if a single candidate is likely to receive a quota of 1.55, it is likely that two candidates could be elected with the help of transfers.
Already confirmed to be fighting for the maximum of two Unionist seats are Dianne Dodds (DUP), Jim Nicholson (UUP) and Henry Reilly (UKIP). It is expected that John McCallister will run for NI21.The PUP have indicated that they will run a candidate as has Jamie Bryson, the outspoken 'fleg' protest organiser (first to loose £5k deposit?). The TUV being the TUV will not want to further fragment the Unionist vote will stand aside and give their backing to another candidate (probably Henry Reilly).
So with a rather crowded Unionist field of six or seven candidates as well the 'Others' being represented by Ross Brown of the Green Party and an unconfirmed Alliance candidate, there will be talk/scaremongering in the months ahead about the possibility of Nationalists winning the third seat.
In the 2009 European Elections Unionists received 237,436 votes accounting for 49% of total votes. Nationalists received 204,673 (42.2%). A difference of 32,763. Turnout was low at 42.8%.
Will a congested Unionist field result in any significant number of votes being lost in the transfer system of STV due to voters not transferring all the way down the line?
What effect will a low turnout have? Turnout has been declining in Nationalist areas at a faster pace than in Unionist areas. Will this trend continue?
What effect will voter apathy have? The recent drive to get names on the new Elector Register showed Unionist areas had more success. Greater voter apathy among Catholics/Nationalists? Has the decision by Belfast City Council to reduce the flying of the Union Jack over the City Hall had motivated the PUL community to turnout in greater numbers to the polling booths?
And of course what effect will demographic change since the last election have?
These are the factors which will determine who wins the all important third seat.
Not to sure about the electoral register as all the areas showed similar figures apart from South Belfast which is understandably low because of a large student and migrant population. Flegger central East Belfast was just on the average for all constituencies so the fleg issue hasnt had that big an impact. The Unionist vote will fragment as with 6 candidates people are unlikely to go right down the list but they should still just have enough this time to get the second seat for Jim Nicholson. A second DUP candidate hasnt a chance so why SF are even thinking about it is even more dumb. Watch out for Jamie will probably get more votes than you would think, there seem to be enough loons over on the protestant coalition facebook page and I wouldnt be surprised if he got more votes than that other head banger Henry Reilly. As usual it would be interesting to see where the Alliance and Green transfers go but if the trend of recent elections continues more and more seem to filter back to nationalism these days.
ReplyDeleteI honestly believe if the SDLP had picked someone with a bit of charisma then they would have had an outide chance but Im afraid Alex seems a bit off putting for a large number of voters - exhibit A - The crash of the SDLP vote in West Belfast
As of 08/11/2013 the figures from the Electoral Office show the constituencies with Nationalist seats have an Electorate Registered of 72.8% and the Unionist constituencies have 76.5% registered. A difference of nearly 4%. Its more than South Belfast at play here.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/5a1c89a6-7509-4a8a-a1cc-bb7ad3f96f87/Press-Release-Electoral-Office-Release-Latest-Figures-on-Return-of-Canvass-Forms-11-11-13
Enda, difficult one for you what is your prediction for first preference % for ussuns ans themmuns.
ReplyDeleteLatest figures show 88% of those eligible to vote are registerd with the highest proportion in Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone so I think the fleg reaction is very much over stated. There was a blogger over on Slugger who was using the previous registration figures to predict general doom and gloom for Nationalism and especially for Big Alec in South Belfast but I just dont see it more like wishfull thinking.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/88-register-to-vote-in-elections-29800642.html
Latest figures show 88% of those eligible to vote are registerd with the highest proportion in Newry and Armagh and West Tyrone so I think the fleg reaction is very much over stated. There was a blogger over on Slugger who was using the previous registration figures to predict general doom and gloom for Nationalism and especially for Big Alec in South Belfast but I just dont see it more like wishfull thinking.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/88-register-to-vote-in-elections-29800642.html
Registration stats from eoni
ReplyDeletehttp://www.eoni.org.uk/getmedia/d03660d6-cc3f-46bb-8580-456b4be15ee1/Final-Canvass-Statistics-by-Constituency-(website)
Final figures show an average of 88.25% in Nationalist constituencies and 88.5% in Unionist constituencies. On first glance it appears than Nationalist areas have closed the 4% gap in the last couple of weeks. Belfast South would appear to skew the results with it's large student and emigrant population. At 70% registration this brings the Nationalist average down somewhat.
ReplyDeleteHowever, the final figures have partially been arrived at by adding people to the register who were 'confirmed from other official sources'. These are potential voters who have not returned the voter registration forms but were added/kept on the register because they show up on the Health Card register, etc.
Unionist areas such as East Belfast and Strangford had c4.6k added this way whereas Nationalist areas such as West Belfast, Foyle and Newry/Armagh had c9k added.
So although the final figures have turned out to be equal, this indicates that fewer Catholics returned the forms and therefore are more apathetic.
I have not had a look at the figures by ward but it was interesting to note that some wards had a return of 101-102%. It was mentioned on twitter that Derriaghy North, a large Nationalist ward had a return of 95%.
here's the breakdown by ward.
ReplyDelete"Enda, difficult one for you what is your prediction for first preference % for ussuns ans themmuns"?
ReplyDeleteIt is difficult as there are many variables.
More than likely the denomination with the largest amount of first percentage votes will win the third seat.
The new electoral register has 1,241,079 people on it. Assuming a turnout of 40% (it was 43% in 2009) we get 496,432. Lets round up and say 500,000 will vote. Assuming 10% of the votes going to 'Others' we are left with 450k Unionist and Nationalist votes. So if either side can get 225k (450k/2) first preference votes they should take the third seat.
Looking at the 2009 figures the threshold may be lower than 225k. Nationalists had 204,673 votes and Unionists had 237,436 votes. A 7.5% swing* would give both Nationalist and Unionists c220k votes and may be enough for Nationalists to gain the third seat.
Game on!
*
N: 204,673 x 1.075 = 220,023
U: 237,436 x 0.925 = 219,628