2017 was a game-changing year. We have seen Unionism lose it's majority for the first time since the formation of the gerrymandered sectarian state. We have seen an end of Nationalist apathy. For the first time ever, we have had opinion polls showing a plurality of 48% in favour of Irish Unity as opposed to 45% support for staying in the United Kingdom in the event of a hard Brexit. The same poll showed that among 18-44 year olds a clear majority of 56% are in favour of Irish Unity and less than 34% in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. We have had the first stage of the Brexit negotiations where the Irish Government has put it up to Arlene Foster as the UK commits economic suicide. Recently we have seen leaked revised proposals from the Boundary Commission, which show us that gerrymandering has not gone away. All of these events are related to changing demographics in the North.
The census is only published once every 10 years but there are other publications each year which give us an insight to changes in demographics on a yearly basis. The
Schools Census/School Enrolment Statistical Bulletins which give an annual breakdown of the religious composition of 5 to 18 year olds. The
Labour Force Survey gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age and general population aged over 16 years old. The Equality Commission
Monitoring Report also provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce year on year.
The Schools Census for the year 2017/2018 shows that Catholics are have a majority of 51% of the school population while Protestant minority has declined to 37%. Those of No Religion/Religion Not Stated account for 12%.
The latest Labour Force Survey Religion Report showing the 2016 figures has shown a large adjustment on the prior year figures in the Population Aged 16-24. Compared with 2015 the Catholic percentage plummeted by 9 percentage points from 51% to 42% while the Protestant percentage increased from 36% to 38%. This adjustment goes against overall trends all other sources of demographic data.
The effect of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds has had a knock on effect on the Working Age Population and the Population Aged Over 16. Compared with 2015 figures, the Working Age Population of Catholics has fallen from 46% to 44%. Others have risen 2% to 16% and the Protestant percentage remains unchanged at 40%.
Parity had been reached among the two communities among the Population Aged 16 and Over in 2015. The trends showed that in 2016 that Catholics would outnumber Protestants in this age group for the first time. Because of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds the percentage of Catholics fell from 44% to 42%. Others increased from 12% to 14%. Protestants remained unchanged at 44%.
The Population Aged 60+ has not changed. The percentage split remains 57/35/8.
The Equality Commission Monitoring Report No 27 for 2016 shows the workforce now has a split of 51.6% Protestant and 48.4% Catholic. This gap is closing by 1% ever due to a higher level of Catholic Applicants (53.2%) and Appointees (53.8%). The trend shows that parity will be reached by 2019.
There is a very strong correlation between voting preference and demographics in the North. The trends are clear. There is a Catholic plurality in the North and there will soon be more people voting for Nationalists than Unionists. We have entered the final stage of the Endgame In Ulster.
