Demographic Update

2017 was a game-changing year. We have seen Unionism lose it's majority for the first time since the formation of the gerrymandered sectarian state. We have seen an end of Nationalist apathy. For the first time ever, we have had opinion polls showing a plurality of 48% in favour of Irish Unity as opposed to 45% support for staying in the United Kingdom in the event of a hard Brexit. The same poll showed that among 18-44 year olds a clear majority of 56% are in favour of Irish Unity and less than 34% in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. We have had the first stage of the Brexit negotiations where the Irish Government has put it up to Arlene Foster as the UK commits economic suicide. Recently we have seen leaked revised proposals from the Boundary Commission, which show us that gerrymandering has not gone away. All of these events are related to changing demographics in the North.


The census is only published once every 10 years but there are other publications each year which give us an insight to changes in demographics on a yearly basis. The Schools Census/School Enrolment Statistical Bulletins which give an annual breakdown of the religious composition of 5 to 18 year olds. The Labour Force Survey gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age and general population aged over 16 years old. The Equality Commission Monitoring Report also provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce year on year.


The Schools Census for the year 2017/2018 shows that Catholics are have a majority of 51% of the school population while Protestant minority has declined to 37%. Those of No Religion/Religion Not Stated account for 12%.

The latest Labour Force Survey Religion Report showing the 2016 figures has shown a large adjustment on the prior year figures in the Population Aged 16-24. Compared with 2015 the Catholic percentage plummeted by 9 percentage points from 51% to 42% while the Protestant percentage increased from 36% to 38%. This adjustment goes against overall trends all other sources of demographic data.

The effect of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds has had a knock on effect on the Working Age Population and the Population Aged Over 16. Compared with 2015 figures, the Working Age Population of Catholics has fallen from 46% to 44%. Others have risen 2% to 16% and the Protestant percentage remains unchanged at 40%.

Parity had been reached among the two communities among the Population Aged 16 and Over in 2015. The trends showed that in 2016 that Catholics would outnumber Protestants in this age group for the first time. Because of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds the percentage of Catholics fell from 44% to 42%. Others increased from 12% to 14%. Protestants remained unchanged at 44%.

 The Population Aged 60+ has not changed. The percentage split remains 57/35/8.

The Equality Commission Monitoring Report No 27 for 2016 shows the workforce now has a split of 51.6% Protestant and 48.4% Catholic. This gap is closing by 1% ever due to a higher level of Catholic Applicants (53.2%) and Appointees (53.8%). The trend shows that parity will be reached by 2019.

There is a very strong correlation between voting preference and demographics in the North. The trends are clear. There is a Catholic plurality in the North and there will soon be more people voting for Nationalists than Unionists. We have entered the final stage of the Endgame In Ulster.

Unionist High Water Mark?

A snap Westminster election has resulted in a minority Conservative UK government dependent on a "supply and confidence" agreement with the DUP. Having secured 10 seats in the North it is enough to bring the Torys over the 326 seats needed for a majority.

As always this blog is concerned about the impact in Ireland and the Nationalist strength in the north of the country. There was almost identical turnout among the two communities in the March Assembly election which brought an end to a period of Nationalist voter apathy. Unionists responded with a surge in turnout, an additional 50,000 votes bringing their total to 395,000 votes.

Given that the March Assembly result left only 1,200 votes between the DUP and SF and some 20,000 votes between Nationalism and Unionism this election was portrayed by the DUP as a vote for the Union. If Unionism could not bring out it's voters in mass in this election it never will. And this is why I believe this is the high water mark for Unionism. 400,000 votes is required to beat Unionism on their best day.

The SDLP and UUP have been left with no seats. SF won 7 seats and the DUP won 10. The independent Unionist Sylvia Hermon won the other. Of course if the SDLP had accepted the will of the Nationalist people and responded to the Unionist pact, North and South Belfast would not have gone to the DUP. They got their answer on that one.

The DUP will not agree to the SF demand for implementation of previous agreements before Stormont can be reinstated. Therefore another Assembly election is likely in the near future as is another Westminster election for that matter. The possibility of the Nationalist vote exceeding the Unionist vote in one of these is there. As always turnout will be key. If not in 2017/2018 it will happen as some stage in the immediate future and calls for a Unity Referendum cannot be ignored. Interesting times ahead!

Crocodile Rock

Well this has been coming. The premise of this blog is that demographic change will be translated into political change. We had not seen this in the elections cycle from 2014 to 2016 due to Nationalist voter apathy. However Nationalists have awoken from their slumber. Turnout matched and slightly exceeded turnout of Unionists.

The result was 40 seats for Nationalists and 40 for Unionists. Not only did Unionism loose its majority in the Assembly, it lost a plurality. First preference votes showed Nationalism at 42% with Unionism at 44%. There was only 20k votes between Unionism and Nationalism and a mere 1,000 votes between the DUP and Sinn Fein. The times they are a changing.

The challenge for Nationalism now is to push on from this and not become complacent. There are still over 300k Catholics and 600k Protestants who did not vote for a Nationalist party. These are the people who should be targeted.

Labour Force Survey 2015

The Labour Force Survey for 2015 has been published. The LFS gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age population and general population from the age of 16. Although results can be erratic due to variances in the samples taken, the trends can be used to determine future voting patterns given the strong correlation between religion and political affiliation.


The 2015 report shows that for the first time, those from a Catholic community background make up a plurality of the working age population. Parity has been reached with those from a Protestant community background in all ages above the age of 16. Catholics are now in an overall majority in the 16-24 age cohort as opposed to just 35% in the over 60s.


Working Age Population
"In 2015, there was a higher proportion of Catholics among the working age population (46%) than Protestants (40%), with the remaining 14% reported as ‘other/non-determined’.

This is the first time in the time series presented in Figure 2.2 that Catholics amount for a higher proportion of the working age population.


In 1990, the religious composition of the working age population was 54% Protestant, 41% Catholic and 6% other/non-determined. Over this period, the number of Protestants of working age decreased by 5% (from 495,000 to 469,000), the number of working age Catholics increased by 44% (from 375,000 to 538,000), and the number of those classified as ‘other/non-determined’ trebled (from 53,000 to 159,000)."

Population Aged 16+
"The proportion of Protestants has fallen by 12 percentage points between 1990 and 2015, from 56% to 44%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by six percentage points, from 38% to 44%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has doubled (from 6% to 12%) over this period.

Between 1990 and 2015 the number of Protestants aged 16 and over decreased by
10,000, or 2%, to 633,000, while the number of Catholics increased by 193,000, or 44%, to 633,000 over the same period. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ has almost trebled from 63,000 to 180,000 over this period."

Population Aged 16-24
"The proportion of this age group who reported as Protestant has decreased
between 1990 and 2015 (from 49% to 36%), while the proportion of Catholics increased
(from 44% to 51%), and the proportion classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled, from 7% to 13%, over the same period.

Between 1990 and 2015, the number of Protestants in this age group has decreased by 38,000 (33%) from 116,000 to 78,000. The number of Catholics has increased slightly over this period, from 105,000 to 109,000 (4%). The largest proportionate increase was among those classified as ‘other/non-determined’; from 16,000 in 1990 to 29,000 in 2015."

Population Aged 60+
"The proportion of this age group who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 57% in 2015, while the proportion of Catholics has increased, from 30% to 35%, over this same period. Five per cent of those aged 60 and over were classified as ‘other/non-determined’ in 1990; by 2015 this proportion had increased to 8%.

There were 166,000 Protestants aged 60 and over in 1990 and this had increased to
212,000 by 2015. The number of Catholics in this age group increased from 76,000 to
132,000 over the same period. The 11,000 who were aged 60 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ in 1990 had almost trebled to 30,000 by 2015."

Equality Commission Monitoring Report No. 26

The monitoring of demographic data might not be everyone's cup of tea. Many will refer to it as "sectarian head counting." However the fact remains that there has always been a close correlation between religion and politics in the North of Ireland. Very few if any Catholics vote for Unionist parties and very few Protestants vote for Nationalist parties. Therefore demographic change can give us a clue as to how voting patterns will develop in the future. This is the reality.

The Equality Commission have published their 26th Monitoring Report. This report provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce in the year 2015. The trend has not changed and parity is likely in 2017 or 2018.

The composition of Catholics in the workforce increased to 47.9% (+0.5%) in 2015 while the Protestant proportion decreased to 52.1%.

The reason the trend has continued in 2015 is due to the percentage of Catholic community background applicants (52.9%) and appointees (53.1%) being greater than their Protestant counterparts (47.1% and 46.9% respectively).

The most puzzling aspect of this report is why Protestants make up only 49.1% of leavers from the workforce when according to the 2011 census, retirement age Protestants make up c65% of the general population? 

The DUP's Gregory Campell in a recent attack on the Equality Commission complained that Protestants were under represented in appointments to the workforce. These figures show there is an under representation of 0.2%, in other words there is no under representation. 

Perhaps Gregory hasn't come to terms with the fact that demographics have changed. Annually published figures such as Equality Commission Monitoring Reports show us that the trends seen in the 2011 census show no sign of abating. Therefore 2017 marks the first time that Catholics in the North outnumber Protestants in the general population. Significant given the raision d'etre for the 1921 gerrymandering was to provide a "Protestant state for a Protestant people." 

Labour Force Survey 2014

The Labour Force Survey for 2014 has been published. The LFS gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the Working Age Population and general population from the age of 16. Although results can be erratic due to variances in the samples taken, the trends can be used to determine future voting patterns given the strong correlation between religion and political affiliation.

Working Age Population
"The difference between the proportion of Protestants and Catholics in the working age population has fallen from 13 percentage points in 1990 to one percentage point in 2014. In 1990 the religious composition of the population of working age was 54% Protestant, 41% Catholic & 6% other/non determined. In 2014 the corresponding figures were 44%, 43% and 13%."

"Over this period, the number of Protestants of working age increased by 3% (from 495,000 to 511,000), the number of working age Catholics increased by 35% (from 375,000 to 504,000), and the number of those classified as 'other/non-determined' almost trebled (from 53,000 to 149,000)".

The definition of "working age" was changed in 2010. Therefore this seems a good starting point to look at the more recent trend.

Population Aged 16+
"The proportion of Protestants has fallen by nine percentage points between 1990 and 2014, from 56% to 47%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by three percentage points from 38% to 41%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as 'other/non-determined' has doubled (from 6% to 12%) over this period".

"Between 1990 and 2014 the number of Protestants aged 16 and over increased by 35,000, or 5%, to 678,000, while the number of Catholics increased by 150,000, or 34%, to 590,000 over the same period. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as 'other/non-determined' has almost trebled from 63,000 to 170,000 over this period".

The more recent trend can be seen in the graph below

Population Aged 16-24
The proportion of Protestants has decreased between 1990 and 2014 (from 49% to 42%), while the proportion of Catholics increased (from 44% to 45%), and the proportion classified as 'other'/non-determined' has almost doubled form 7% to 13%, over the same period.

"Between 1990 and 2014, the number of Protestants in this age group has decreased by 25,000 (22%) to 91,000. The number of Catholics has also decreased over the period, albeit to a lesser extent, from 105,000 to 96,000 (9%). These decreases have been somewhat offset by an increase among those classified as 'other/non-determined' from 16,000 in 1990 to 28,000 in 2014."

Population Aged 60+
"The composition of the population aged 60+ between 1990 and 2014 who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 59% in 2014, while the proportion of Catholics has increased from 30% to 33% over the same period. Five percent of those aged 60 and over were classified as 'other/not-determined' in 1990; by 2014 this proportion had increased to 8%".

"There were 166,000 Protestants aged 60 and over in 1990 and this has increased to 216,000 by 2014. The number of Catholics in this age group has increased from 76,000 to 122,000 over the same period. The 11,000 who were aged 60 and over classified as 'other/non-determined' in 1990 had almost trebled to 30,000 by 2014".

Conclusion
Among the Working Age Population the gap between the two main religious blocks stands at only 7,000 or 1 percentage point in 2014.

Among those aged 16 and over the gap between the two communities is 88,000 or 6 percentage points.

Are these trends likely to continue? The answer lies in the two population cohorts aged 16-24 and over 60.

Among the 16-24 year old's there is a majority of 5,000 more Catholics or 3 percentage points.

Among those aged 60 and over, in 2014 there were 94,000 more Protestants a gap of 26%.

So with more Catholics entering the workforce and more Protestants reaching retirement age we can expect to see parity in the 2015 or 2016 Labour Force Survey. It is also evident that the general demographic trends will continue at pace.

University Matters

A Loyalist newspaper has ran a front cover story of the "stark religious divide at university".  The article informs of the demographic make up of new entrants into third level education in the North in the last academic year. Protestants make up 14,195 (29.5%) of those entering university, compared to 21,765 (45.3%) Catholics. This would leave 12,115 (25.2%) Other (no religion/no disclosed/overseas students etc.). Leaving aside the others the breakdown is 61% Catholic, 39% Protestant.

According to UUP spokesperson Sandra Overend the reason for this "educational inequality" is because Sinn Féin were not tackling the issue. DUP spokesman Peter Weir went one better and blamed a "chill factor" for Protestants attending university because of the behaviour of Catholics.

Presumably this bad behaviour includes wearing GAA gear, use of the native Irish language and celebrating St. Partick's Day.

There is educational under achievement particularly among Protestant boys. This is a damning indictment of the failure of Unionist politicians to show leadership. They would much rather concentrate on bonfires, parades, flags and the past.

Let's be clear educational under achievement has very little to do with the demographic make up of the North's third level colleges. Some suggest that there is a "protestant brain drain" whereby more protestants go to university in Britain and stay there to work once they graduate. This may be a factor but the major reason for the "relious divide" of new entrants into the North's universities is demographics.

The School's Census which is published every year shows a trend towards a 60:40 Catholic Protestant split in our schools. It is therefore not really surprising that entrants into universities show the same ratio. 

Equality Commission Monitoring Report No. 25

The Equality Commission have published their 25th Monitoring Report. This report provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce in the year 2014. Previous trends show no sign of abating. Parity will be achieved in 2018.

The composition of Catholics in the workforce has increased to 47.4% (+0.4%) in 2014 while the Protestant proportion has decreased to 52.6%.

The reason the trend has continued in 2014 was due to the percentage of appointees from a Catholic community background (51.8%) being greater that those appointed to jobs from a Protestant background (48.2%) and because the Protestant percentage of leavers from the workforce (50.7%) being greater than their Catholic counterparts (49.3%).

Note that the Catholic percentage of applicants to the workforce was 52.3%, somewhat higher than the 51.8% appointed.

It should also be noted that the proportion of Protestants at retirement age is c66%. The 50.7% leaving the workforce each year is much lower than this. 

 

Nationalist Voter Apathy

After the formation of the gerrymandered, sectarian "Protestant state for Protestant people," the Catholic minority community suffered decades of discrimination, inequality and sectarianism. Essentially second class citizens, many were forced many to emigrate. In spite of this, demographic change started to occur in the 1960s which saw the number and proportion of the Catholic population begin to increase.
                       

Partition was not kind to the Nationalist political parties either who obtained the vast majority of its support from the Catholic minority community. Majority Unionist rule led to gerrymandering and denial of the right to one man one vote. 

As demographics changed and the Catholic population grew so too did the Nationalist vote. Nationalists which once made up a mere 18.9% of the vote, had by the time the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998 almost reached parity with Unionists.

                       

From around the year 1998 until 2011 the Nationalist voted seemed to plateau at around 42%. The results of the 2014 local and European elections came as a shock. The combined Sinn Féin and SDLP vote slipped back to 38.5%. The result of the 2015 Westminster election shows this was no once off. The SF/SDLP vote of 38.4% is almost identical to the prior year. So what has happened to Nationalism? Why despite demographic change has the Nationalist vote stalled and gone into decline? Could it be electoral apathy?

The graph below is an estimate of electoral turnout based on election figures and community background figures from the census. It assumes that he vast majority of those brought up in a Catholic community background vote for or are inclined to vote for Nationalist parties and the vast majority of those brought up in a Protestant community background vote for or are inclined to vote for Unionist parties. It also assumes that everybody is on the electoral register.

Nationalist voter apathy was catching up with traditional Unionist voter apathy up until 2009 when parity was reached. Although the proportion of Nationalists voting declined at a greater rate than Unionists, the Nationalist percentage of the vote was holding. This was a sign of further demographic change.

The 2014 European and local elections saw a surge in Unionist turnout. The Nationalist vote continued it's decline and remained well below the Unionist turnout in the 2015 election.

There were two significant events which took place between the 2011 and 2014 elections which could have caused the Unionist turnout to increase well beyond that of Nationalists.

On 4th December 2012, Belfast City Council with it's first ever Nationalist plurality voted to change the policy of flying the Union Flag from City Hall. Instead of the flying of the flag 365 days per year it would only be flown on 17 designated days. The Union Jack which had flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.

There was an electoral canvass in 2013. Basically the Electoral Office NI wiped clean the electoral register, an electoral canvass took place in each constituency and a new electoral register was published. The new register contained details of 1,241,079 electors out of an eligible electorate of 1,405,808 based on the 2011 census. The new register contained 88.3% of the eligible population. Could it be that the new register contained a much higher proportion of additional potential Unionist voters than Nationalist voters? The Loyalist reaction to the removal of the Union Jack from Belfast City Hall was bedlam on the streets. Could the overall Unionist reaction have been getting the maximum amount of additional potential voters onto the electoral register?

Clearly Unionists have become more motivated to turnout and vote. But that is only one side of the equation and not something Nationalist can change. What can be changed is the huge increase in apathy among their own base.

In order to resolve this major problem the reasons for increasing apathy must be identified. Then solutions must be formulated.

Possible reasons for Nationalist voter apathy:

• Despondency. Not much progress has been made since the GFA. The British Government and Unionists have failed to implement outstanding issues of past agreements such as the Irish Language Act. No progress has been made on the A5, the Ulster Canal, Narrow Bridge or an independent University for Derry. Little or no jobs have been created outside of Belfast. No fiscal powers have been secured. Amazingly, both SF and the SDLP have entered into subsequent agreements without first obtaining guarantees on implementing past agreements.
• The collapse of the Irish economy is likely to have had an effect. Note the large drop in Nationalist turnout between 2007 and 2009. The annual Peace Monitoring Report suggests support for Unity dropped at the height of the recession.
• Lack of choice. Unionists have the DUP, UUP, TUV, UKIP, PUP, Conservatives etc. Nationalists have two left wing parties with very little separating them bar their view on the past.
• Lack of Nationalist co-operation. The Unionist pact worked to perfection. In PR elections Unionists will encourage voters to give a preference to all other Unionists on the ballot paper. Past experience suggests SF and SDLP will not do the same.
• Many practicing Catholics are not enamoured by SF and SDLP views on abortion and same sex marriage.
• The SDLP are a party lacking individuals with charisma and leadership. They are turning non SF inclined voters off who are either staying at home or voting for Alliance and People Before Profit.

Possible Remedies:

• A Nationalist Panel should be set up with representatives from all interested parties to research the reasons for increasing  apathy and report back on it's findings with remedies.
• Granting Irish citizens in the North voting rights in Presidential Elections would energise Nationalists and encourage more political organisation on an All Ireland basis. This should be a key strategic objective.
• More choice is required. The North is crying out for a centre right All Ireland party. Fianna Faíl who have promised to contest the 2019 assembly elections may offer the best opportunity.
• Reduce the legal voting age to 16.
• Learn from the Scottish National Party success in Scotland and replicate where practical.
• Campaign to get the maximum number of people registered to vote.
• More focus on getting those living/travelling abroad and those in 3rd level education to use their postal or proxy vote.
• Both SF and the SDLP need to put aside their narrow political interests and co-operate for the greater good.
• An Irish Passport Office should be set up in Belfast and/or Derry.

Schools Census 2014/2015

Today's school children are tomorrows voters. The strong correlation between voting trends and religious affiliation advocates the use of current demographic data to determine future voting patterns.

 

The Schools Census 2014/2015 published by the Department of Education Northern Ireland (DENI) provides a breakdown of the religion of school children in nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North of Ireland.

 

As the Schools Census is published annually a trend has emerged of an increasing proportion of Catholics and Others (No Religion/Not Recorded) and a year on year reduction in the proportion of Protestants. Page 27 of this years report shows that these trends are continuing. Catholics now make up 51.3% (+0.2%) of pupils. The Protestant percentage has declined to 38.8% (-0.4%) while the Others have increased to 9.9% (+0.2%).

 

The figures above are similar to figures in table DC2116NI of the 2011 Census in that they are based on the stated 'Religion'. The 2011 Census also produced table DC2117NI which determines the 'Community Background' of the population. Basically a proportion of 'Others' in table DC2116NI have been allocated to the two main blocks to produce table DC2117NI.

 

This can be replicated in the Schools Census. Primary school children are generally aged between 5 to 11 years and secondary school children are aged between 12 and 18. At the time of the 2011 Census todays 5 to 11 year olds were aged 1 to 7 and todays 12 to 18 year olds were aged 8 to 14.

 

The allocation of 'Others' in table DC2116NI (Religion) to produce table DC2117NI (Community Background) shows the following allocation for todays school children:

• School children aged 1-7: 20.3% to Catholic. 20.2% to Protestant.
• School children aged 8-14: 22.0% to Catholic. 23.8% to Protestant.

Using these figures to reallocate 'Others' in the Schools Census to provide a truer reflection of the community background of students, we find that Catholics make up 53.4%, Protestants 40.9% and Others 5.7%. 

 

Leaving aside the 5.7% 'Others' not identified as belonging to either the Catholic or Protestant community backgrounds, the religious split in the schools is 57% Catholic and 43% Protestant.

So in a week where we find that extreme elements of Unionism are so worried about changing demographics that they are using land funds to prevent Catholics from buying homes, we can determine that the trend towards a 60:40 demographic make up of the North's population shows no sign of abating. If the correlation between voting trends and religious affiliation remains strong, inevitably Nationalism's day will come.