2017 was a game-changing year. We have seen Unionism lose it's majority for the first time since the formation of the gerrymandered sectarian state. We have seen an end of Nationalist apathy. For the first time ever, we have had opinion polls showing a plurality of 48% in favour of Irish Unity as opposed to 45% support for staying in the United Kingdom in the event of a hard Brexit. The same poll showed that among 18-44 year olds a clear majority of 56% are in favour of Irish Unity and less than 34% in favour of remaining in the United Kingdom. We have had the first stage of the Brexit negotiations where the Irish Government has put it up to Arlene Foster as the UK commits economic suicide. Recently we have seen leaked revised proposals from the Boundary Commission, which show us that gerrymandering has not gone away. All of these events are related to changing demographics in the North.
The census is only published once every 10 years but there are other publications each year which give us an insight to changes in demographics on a yearly basis. The Schools Census/School Enrolment Statistical Bulletins which give an annual breakdown of the religious composition of 5 to 18 year olds. The Labour Force Survey gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age and general population aged over 16 years old. The Equality Commission Monitoring Report also provides a breakdown of the composition of the North's workforce year on year.
The Schools Census for the year 2017/2018 shows that Catholics are have a majority of 51% of the school population while Protestant minority has declined to 37%. Those of No Religion/Religion Not Stated account for 12%.
The latest Labour Force Survey Religion Report showing the 2016 figures has shown a large adjustment on the prior year figures in the Population Aged 16-24. Compared with 2015 the Catholic percentage plummeted by 9 percentage points from 51% to 42% while the Protestant percentage increased from 36% to 38%. This adjustment goes against overall trends all other sources of demographic data.
The effect of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds has had a knock on effect on the Working Age Population and the Population Aged Over 16. Compared with 2015 figures, the Working Age Population of Catholics has fallen from 46% to 44%. Others have risen 2% to 16% and the Protestant percentage remains unchanged at 40%.
Parity had been reached among the two communities among the Population Aged 16 and Over in 2015. The trends showed that in 2016 that Catholics would outnumber Protestants in this age group for the first time. Because of the adjustment among the 16 to 24 year olds the percentage of Catholics fell from 44% to 42%. Others increased from 12% to 14%. Protestants remained unchanged at 44%.
The Population Aged 60+ has not changed. The percentage split remains 57/35/8.
The Equality Commission Monitoring Report No 27 for 2016 shows the workforce now has a split of 51.6% Protestant and 48.4% Catholic. This gap is closing by 1% ever due to a higher level of Catholic Applicants (53.2%) and Appointees (53.8%). The trend shows that parity will be reached by 2019.
There is a very strong correlation between voting preference and demographics in the North. The trends are clear. There is a Catholic plurality in the North and there will soon be more people voting for Nationalists than Unionists. We have entered the final stage of the Endgame In Ulster.
Well this has been coming. The premise of this blog is that demographic change will be translated into political change. We had not seen this in the elections cycle from 2014 to 2016 due to Nationalist voter apathy. However Nationalists have awoken from their slumber. Turnout matched and slightly exceeded turnout of Unionists.
The result was 40 seats for Nationalists and 40 for Unionists. Not only did Unionism loose its majority in the Assembly, it lost a plurality. First preference votes showed Nationalism at 42% with Unionism at 44%. There was only 20k votes between Unionism and Nationalism and a mere 1,000 votes between the DUP and Sinn Fein. The times they are a changing.
The challenge for Nationalism now is to push on from this and not become complacent. There are still over 300k Catholics and 600k Protestants who did not vote for a Nationalist party. These are the people who should be targeted.
Study by researchers who have examined German and Korean unification models shows long-term improvement of GDP per capita in the North of 4 to 7.5 percent, while the Republic would see a boost of 0.7 to 1.2 percent.
At an evening presentation at the Harvard Club in Midtown Manhattan, two prominent scholars in the field of political science and economics released the findings of a landmark, first-ever economic study entitled Modeling Irish Unification, which showed significant long-term improvement in the stagnant Northern Irish economy would result from removing currency, trade and tax barriers that currently impede economic growth.
The report also showed improvements for theRepublic of Ireland, which would benefit from barrier-free access to the Northern Irish market. By modeling three separate unification scenarios, the researchers showed a long-term improvement of GDP per capita in the North of 4 to 7.5 percent, while the Republic of Irelandwould see a boost of 0.7 to 1.2 percent.
The report presents the first comprehensive economic models simulating the political and economic integration of Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The study is particularly timely given current debates over Irish economic growth and the U.K.'s continued participation in the European Union. Three unification scenarios were presented, with the most aggressive estimating a 35.6 billion Euroboost in an all-island GDP in the first eight years of unification.
Representatives of government, the financial sector and international relations communities attended the event.
The research was led by Dr. Kurt Hubner, professor of political science, Jean Monnet Chair for European Integration and Global Political Economy and Director of the Institute for European Studies at the University of British Columbia. Dr. Hubner directed the research through his firm KLC – Consulting for Tomorrow, an economic and political relations consulting firm based in Vancouver. The economic model was developed by Dr. Renger Herman van Nieuwkoop, Director and Founder of ModelWorks and professor of economics at ETH Zurich.
"Our modeling exercise points to strong positive unification effects driven by successful currency devaluation and a policy dependent industrial turn-around," said Dr. Hubner. "While these effects occur in a static global economic environment, under ideal political conditions, they underline the potential of political and economic unification when it is supported by smart economic policy."
In the executive summary, Professor Steven Raphael, UC Berkeley, wrote: "Political and economic unification of the North and South would likely result in a sizable boost in economic output and incomes in the North and a smaller boost in the [Republic of Ireland]."
Marcus Noland, Executive Vice President and Director of Studies at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, provided comment on the study, writing: "Modeling Irish Unification is an important, timely examination of the economics of Irish unification, applying state-of-the-art modeling techniques to the issue at hand. The modeling work illustrates a variety of channels which are likely to be at play in the Irish case, and concludes that Irish unification would be economically beneficial to both parts of the island, especially for smaller, poorer,Northern Ireland."
After Dr. Hubner and Dr. van Nieuwkoop'sconcluded their remarks, Michael Burke, economic consultant and former Senior International Economist at Citibank in London, discussed the global impact of a unifiedIreland.
"The issue of the benefits of a unified Irish economy are unfortunately largely overlooked," said Burke. "This paper goes some way to correcting that and will help develop discussion in this neglected area."
The study was commissioned by K.R.B., a San Francisco Bay area–based nonprofit social welfare organization that promotes social welfare and conflict resolution through education.
Lucid Talk have published their latest Tracker Poll. The polls are regular 'Tracker' polls of the established LT Northern Ireland Opinion Panel (now over 5,000 members). The LucidTalk Opinion Panel consists of Northern Ireland residents (age 18+) and is balanced by gender, age-group, area of residence, and community background, in order to be demographically representative of Northern Ireland.
Most interestingly the poll shows support for Irish Unity in the North at 44.4%. This is significantly higher than the 41% in the 2015 RTE/BBC poll. Brexit is clearly a game changer.
The other significant thing that happened over the last year was the publication of an independent report 'Modelling Irish Reunification' in which findings by Dr. Kurt Hubner concluded that Unification was by far the best option economically for both parts of the island and would provide a boost to GDP of €35.6 billion over 8 years.
It is often said a week is a long time in politics. Try a month. The last month has been one of political turmoil and uncertainty. What does seem certain though, after the unexpected vote in the UK to leave the EU, is that the UK is headed for recession and is on the verge of break up. Having overwhelmingly voted to remain part of the EU, a second Scottish Independence Referendum looks set to be triggered as soon as England begins taking Scotland out of the EU against it's will.
Here in Ireland, Sinn Féin were quick out of the blocks demanding a Unity Referendum (#UnityRef replacing #BoderPoll on the twitter machine!) given that 56% in the North voted to remain. Nothing new or unexpected here.
Then we had the comments from Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin that he hopes the UK’s Brexit vote will eventually lead to a referendum on a united Ireland.
“The remain vote may show people the need to rethink current arrangements. I hope it moves us towards majority support for unification, and if it does we should trigger a reunification referendum. “However, at this moment the only evidence we have is that the majority of people in Northern Ireland want to maintain open borders and a single market with this jurisdiction, and beyond that with the rest of Europe.”
All very positive and he does qualify his remarks with the need for "evidence" that a reunification referendum will have sufficient support to pass. I think he is correct. The only evidence we have is in the form of elections and opinion polls. Opinion polls (at least the non Unionist leaning ones that don't use the wording to steer to the "correct" result) have support for Unification in the North at c40%. The effect of Brexit may increase this by a few percentage points. We will have to wait and see as there has been no opinion pollspublished post Brexit.
The other form of evidence is election results. Due to Nationalist voter apathy, Nationalist strength has not been expressed in the latest cycle of elections. This has resulted in Nationalists being under represented in the Assembly and in Westminster. Perhaps Brexit may wake up apathetic Nationalists. If Nationalist turnout can match Unionist turnout in the first post Brexit election, perhaps this result will provide the evidence required for a Unity Ref. Perhaps it won't and the waiting game of demographic change will go on.
The most significant development of the lot came from Taoiseach Enda Kenny. He has stated a possible border poll should be included as part of the Brexit negotiations.
"The discussions and negotiations that will take place over the next period should take into account the possibility, however far out that it might be, that the clause in the Good Friday Agreement might be triggered. In that if there is clear evidence of a majority of people wishing to leave the United Kingdom and join the Republic, that that should be catered for in the discussions that take place".
What the Fine Gael leader is saying here is that as part of the Brexit negotiations he will seek a guarantee that a future United Ireland will gain automatic membership of the European Union. Therefore when there is a Unity Referendum in the future, voters will know that a vote for a United Ireland will be a vote for a United Ireland within the EU. There would be no ambiguity as there was in the Scottish Independence Referendum.
The onus is now on the Fine Gael government, the minority government backed Fianna Faíl and main opposition party Sinn Féin to ensure that the promise of this guarantee is delivered.
The government should veto any Brexit outcome that does not include this guarantee. This is of vital importance because a future Unity Referendum for a United Ireland in the EU versus a UK of England and Wales outside of the EU is a political game changer.
The final ballot papers have been counted. The Assembly will be made up of 38 DUP, 28 SF, 16 UUP, 12 SDLP, 8 Alliance, 2 PBP, 2 Green Party, 1 TUV and 1 Independent seat. 56 MLAs will designate as Unionist, 40 as Nationalist and the remaining 12 as Other. Those who will designate as Nationalist took a mere 36% of the first preference vote, down over 5% on the 2011 Assembly Election. From the European elections of 2014 to this Assembly Election, this election cycle has been extremely disappointing for Nationalism.
There has traditionally been a correlation with political affiliation and religion. Democratic change has meant that the Catholic population in the North is due to overtake the Protestant population in 2017. In 2023 there should be a Catholic electorate majority (or plurality). The strategy is that as demographic change takes place and the Catholic population grows, so too will the Nationalist vote. Once the Nationalist vote has overtaken the Unionist vote a referendum on Irish Unity would be triggered. This would result in the reunification of Ireland.
This strategy is currently in tatters and Nationalism is in crisis. Why has the Nationalist vote collapsed?
People Before Profit received 2% of the vote and took two seats. PBP are an All Ireland Party and say they oppose the border yet they will not designate as Nationalist as they see themselves primarily as Socialists. A motion on the border needs to be put in the early days of the Assembly to test them on this. Even if we say the Nationalist vote was 38% this is still a miserable return.
Apathy again is the real problem. Many Nationalists no longer vote for SF or the SDLP because of a perceived liberal view on social issues such as abortion and same sex marriage. Many don't vote because they believe that partaking in the Northern Assembly is akin to administering of British rule in Ireland. Most though it seems don't vote because they simply don't give a shit!
In any
debate on the economics of a United Ireland, Unionists will
inevitably contend that the North receives an annual £10bn subvention from
Westminster. Their argument is that in a United Ireland the Dublin government
would not be able to afford to replace this block grant. Therefore it does not
make economic sense to have a United Ireland.
In order
to challenge this argument we need to go directly to the source of the
argument. In March 2014 the Department of Finance and Learning (DFL) published
the Northern Ireland Net Fiscal Balance Report 2011-2012.
At
first glance the Unionist argument appears to be
correct, that Northern Ireland generates around £14 billion in tax
revenue and spends approximately £24 billion leaving a deficit of some £10
billion
2011-2012
£'billion
Estimated Total Revenue
14.1
Total Managed Expenditure
23.8
Surplus/(Deficit)
-9.7
Let us
delve into the figures. We are told the estimated tax revenue is
c£14.1 billion. A breakdown of the relevant taxes is given, but we are not told
how much corporation tax which is generated in Northern Ireland but declared
in London. This is true for companies which are located in the North with their
headquarters in London.
On the
expenditure side, what makes up the 'Total Managed Expenditure' figure of
£23.8 billion? Total Managed Expenditure is made up of 'Identifiable Managed
Expenditure', 'Non Identifiable Managed Expenditure' and 'Accounting Adjustments'.
Non
Identifiable Managed Expenditure of £3.3 billion relates to UK wide spending
on things like Defence and servicing of debt. Basically it has
nothing whatsoever to do with the North of Ireland. I'm not sure exactly
what the Accounting Adjustment of £1.1 billion relates to but I do know
it relates to an overall UK accounting adjustment. Again nothing to do with
the North.
Total Managed Expenditure
£'billion
Identifiable Managed Expenditure
19.4
Non Identifiable Managed
Expenditure
3.3
Accounting Adjustments
1.1
Total Managed Expenditure
23.8
So that
just leaves us with the 'Identifiable Managed Expenditure' of £19.4 billion.
We are told it is made up of Departmental Expenditure Limits (DEL), Annual
Managed Expenditure (AME) and Locally Generated Funds.
Locally
Generated Funds? Yes, you guessed it. These are funds collected in the North,
mainly from regional and local rates. Therefore these funds are not
British government funding.
I am
not aware of the how much of Identifiable Managed Expenditure is made up
of these 'Locally Generated Funds' in 2011-2012 but I do
have the figures for 2012-2013. Until I find out the figure for 2011-2012 I
will take it that it is the same as the £1.3 billion figure of 2012-2013.
Identifiable Managed Expenditure 2012-2013
£'billion
Departmental Expenditure Limits
(DEL)
10.4
Annual Managed Expenditure (AME)
8.1
Locally generated funds (mainly
Regional and Local Rates)
1.3
NI Identifiable public expenditure
19.8
With
the benefit of now knowing the breakdown of the figures we can conclude that
the total relevant expenditure in the British government financial year to
April 2012 was £18.1 billion and the real budget deficit and block grant was
£4 billion.
Relevant Expenditure
£'billion
Total Managed Expenditure
23.8
Non Identifiable Managed
Expenditure
-3.3
Accounting Adjustments
-1.1
Locally Generated Funds
-1.3
Relevant Expenditure
18.1
Real Net Fiscal Balance 2011-2012
£'billion
Estimated Total Revenue
14.1
Relevant Expenditure
18.1
Real Deficit
-4.0
So the
real figure for the FY2012 was closer to £4 billion rather than the £10 billion that is
often stated by Unionists. This is before we adjust for incomplete corporation tax figures. We do not know the current (FY2015) block grant figure although I
have heard several commentators say it is closer to £3 billion. Given the
Tory cuts of the last three years a current subvention of £3 billion may
not be too far off the mark.
In
the recent Irish Unity conference in Belfast, economist Michal Burke states
the subvention is just £690 million.
"Outlandish
numbers are frequently cited for the so-called subvention from Westminster,
which is not included in the resources generated in NI. But the data above
shows that there are resources available in NI that make any subvention
unnecessary.
Recent
ONS data specified the total of taxes and benefits for all households in
Britain and in NI. On average households in NI receive £982 more in
benefits than they contribute in taxes and charges. As there 703,000
households in NI, the total subvention to households is just £690 million.
To be absolutely clear, these benefits are not welfare, but all forms of
social protection, plus the NHS, education, bus passes for the
elderly, free school meals, etc., etc.
(The
difference between Britain and NI is households in Britain are net
contributors to government finances of £152 per annum. This is accounted
for by a lower proportion of the population in work and lower paid jobs in
NI- a marker of successive failures of British economic policy in
NI)".
No
matter which figure is correct, let's be clear. The only reason that the
North of Ireland requires an annual subvention is because it exists as part
of the United Kingdom.
After the formation of the gerrymandered, sectarian "Protestant state for Protestant people," the Catholic minority community suffered decades of discrimination, inequality and sectarianism. Essentially second class citizens, many were forced many to emigrate. In spite of this, demographic change started to occur in the 1960s which saw the number and proportion of the Catholic population begin to increase.
Partition was not kind to the Nationalist political parties either who obtained the vast majority of its support from the Catholic minority community. Majority Unionist rule led to gerrymandering and denial of the right to one man one vote.
As demographics changed and the Catholic population grew so too did the Nationalist vote. Nationalists which once made up a mere 18.9% of the vote, had by the time the Good Friday Agreement was signed in 1998 almost reached parity with Unionists.
From around the year 1998 until 2011 the Nationalist voted seemed to plateau at around 42%. The results of the 2014 local and European elections came as a shock. The combined Sinn Féin and SDLP vote slipped back to 38.5%. The
result of the 2015 Westminster election shows this was no once off. The SF/SDLP
vote of 38.4% is almost identical to the prior year. So what has happened to Nationalism? Why despite
demographic change has the Nationalist vote stalled and gone into decline? Could it be electoral apathy?
The graph below is an estimate of electoral turnout based on election figures and community background figures from the census. It assumes that he vast majority of those brought up in a Catholic community background vote for or are inclined to vote for Nationalist parties and the vast majority of those brought up in a Protestant community background vote for or are inclined to vote for Unionist parties. It also assumes that everybody is on the electoral register.
Nationalist voter apathy was catching up with traditional Unionist voter apathy up until 2009 when parity was reached. Although the proportion of Nationalists voting declined at a greater rate than Unionists, the Nationalist percentage of the vote was holding. This was a sign of further demographic change.
The 2014 European and local elections saw a surge in Unionist turnout. The Nationalist vote continued it's decline and remained well below the Unionist turnout in the 2015 election.
There were two significant events which took place between the 2011 and 2014 elections which could have caused the Unionist turnout to increase well beyond that of Nationalists.
On 4th December 2012, Belfast City Council with it's first ever Nationalist plurality voted to change the policy of flying the Union Flag from City Hall. Instead of the flying of the flag 365 days per year it would only be flown on 17 designated days. The Union Jack which had flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.
There was an electoral canvass in 2013. Basically the Electoral Office NI wiped clean the electoral register, an electoral canvass took place in each constituency and a new electoral register was published. The new register contained details of 1,241,079 electors out of an eligible electorate of 1,405,808 based on the 2011 census. The new register contained 88.3% of the eligible population. Could it be that the new register contained a much higher proportion of additional potential Unionist voters than Nationalist voters? The Loyalist reaction to the removal of the Union Jack from Belfast City Hall was bedlam on the streets. Could the overall Unionist reaction have been getting the maximum amount of additional potential voters onto the electoral register?
Clearly Unionists have become more motivated to turnout and vote. But that is only one side of the equation and not something Nationalist can change. What can be changed is the huge increase in apathy among their own base.
In order to resolve this major problem the reasons for increasing apathy must be identified. Then solutions must be formulated.
Possible reasons for Nationalist voter apathy:
Despondency. Not much progress has been made since the GFA. The British Government and Unionists have failed to implement outstanding issues of past agreements such as the Irish Language Act. No progress has been made on the A5, the Ulster Canal, Narrow Bridge or an independent University for Derry. Little or no jobs have been created outside of Belfast. No fiscal powers have been secured. Amazingly, both SF and the SDLP have entered into subsequent agreements without first obtaining guarantees on implementing past agreements.
The collapse of the Irish economy is likely to have had an effect. Note the large drop in Nationalist turnout between 2007 and 2009. The annual Peace Monitoring Report suggests support for Unity dropped at the height of the recession.
Lack of choice. Unionists have the DUP, UUP, TUV, UKIP, PUP, Conservatives etc. Nationalists have two left wing parties with very little separating them bar their view on the past.
Lack of Nationalist co-operation. The Unionist pact worked to perfection. In PR elections Unionists will encourage voters to give a preference to all other Unionists on the ballot paper. Past experience suggests SF and SDLP will not do the same.
Many practicing Catholics are not enamoured by SF and SDLP views on abortion and same sex marriage.
The SDLP are a party lacking individuals with charisma and leadership. They are turning non SF inclined voters off who are either staying at home or voting for Alliance and People Before Profit.
Possible Remedies:
A Nationalist Panel should be set up with representatives from all interested parties to research the reasons for increasing apathy and report back on it's findings with remedies.
Granting Irish citizens in the North voting rights in Presidential Elections would energise Nationalists and encourage more political organisation on an All Ireland basis. This should be a key strategic objective.
More choice is required. The North is crying out for a centre right All Ireland party. Fianna Faíl who have promised to contest the 2019 assembly elections may offer the best opportunity.
Reduce the legal voting age to 16.
Learn from the Scottish National Party success in Scotland and replicate where practical.
Campaign to get the maximum number of people registered to vote.
More focus on getting those living/travelling abroad and those in 3rd level education to use their postal or proxy vote.
Both SF and the SDLP need to put aside their narrow political interests and co-operate for the greater good.
An Irish Passport Office should be set up in Belfast and/or Derry.
