Schools Census 2014/2015

Today's school children are tomorrows voters. The strong correlation between voting trends and religious affiliation advocates the use of current demographic data to determine future voting patterns.

 

The Schools Census 2014/2015 published by the Department of Education Northern Ireland (DENI) provides a breakdown of the religion of school children in nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North of Ireland.

 

As the Schools Census is published annually a trend has emerged of an increasing proportion of Catholics and Others (No Religion/Not Recorded) and a year on year reduction in the proportion of Protestants. Page 27 of this years report shows that these trends are continuing. Catholics now make up 51.3% (+0.2%) of pupils. The Protestant percentage has declined to 38.8% (-0.4%) while the Others have increased to 9.9% (+0.2%).

 

The figures above are similar to figures in table DC2116NI of the 2011 Census in that they are based on the stated 'Religion'. The 2011 Census also produced table DC2117NI which determines the 'Community Background' of the population. Basically a proportion of 'Others' in table DC2116NI have been allocated to the two main blocks to produce table DC2117NI.

 

This can be replicated in the Schools Census. Primary school children are generally aged between 5 to 11 years and secondary school children are aged between 12 and 18. At the time of the 2011 Census todays 5 to 11 year olds were aged 1 to 7 and todays 12 to 18 year olds were aged 8 to 14.

 

The allocation of 'Others' in table DC2116NI (Religion) to produce table DC2117NI (Community Background) shows the following allocation for todays school children:

• School children aged 1-7: 20.3% to Catholic. 20.2% to Protestant.
• School children aged 8-14: 22.0% to Catholic. 23.8% to Protestant.

Using these figures to reallocate 'Others' in the Schools Census to provide a truer reflection of the community background of students, we find that Catholics make up 53.4%, Protestants 40.9% and Others 5.7%. 

 

Leaving aside the 5.7% 'Others' not identified as belonging to either the Catholic or Protestant community backgrounds, the religious split in the schools is 57% Catholic and 43% Protestant.

So in a week where we find that extreme elements of Unionism are so worried about changing demographics that they are using land funds to prevent Catholics from buying homes, we can determine that the trend towards a 60:40 demographic make up of the North's population shows no sign of abating. If the correlation between voting trends and religious affiliation remains strong, inevitably Nationalism's day will come.

Labour Force Survey 2013

Following on from the publication of the 24th Fair Employment Monitoring Report by the Equality Commission comes the publication of the Labour Force Survey 2013.

For as long as the correlation between demographic and voting trends remains strong, I will continue to review publications such as these for information provided on demographics, in order to gage possible future voting patterns.

The main difference between the LFS and Monitoring Reports is that the latter does not monitor the self-employed, those on government training schemes, school teachers and those working in private sector concerns with 10 or less employees. While the LFS does look at a wider market spectrum it comes with a health warning in that as a survey the results can be quite volatile due to sampling errors. Also data to determine the community background figures where religion was not provided by those surveyed has not been used in the LFS.

Comparing the figures for the Working Age Population with the LFS 2012 we see that the proportion of Protestants has increased by one percentage point to 45%, the proportion of Catholics remains unchanged at 43%, while the proportion of  those classified as 'other/non-determined decreased by one percentage point to 12%.

The definition of "working age" changed in 2010 to include both males and females between the ages of 16 and 64 (previously it excluded females between ages 59 to 64). Therefore we will look at the figures from 2010 in order to be as consistent as possible.

The Protestant proportion increase of 1% in 2013 makes as much sense as a 2% decrease in both 2011 and 2012. It is clear the volatility of the LFS can cause year on year changes which are contrary to demographic trends. The LFS recognises this volatility stating "it may be due to sampling error and as such year on year changes should be observed with caution and longer term trends should also be considered." The longer term trends are represented in the graph below.

The LFS also gives us a breakdown of the demographics for the Population Aged 16 and Over. We are told "The proportion of Protestants has fallen by eight percentage points between 1990 and 2013, from 56% to 48%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by three percentage points, from 38% to 41%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled (from 6% to 11%) over this period".

In the graph above we again can see can see the volatility of the results from year to year. The longer term trend is demonstrated below:

The demographic breakdown of the Population Aged 60+ tells us "the proportion of this age group who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 60% in 2013, while the proportion of Catholics has increased, from 30% to 33%, over this same period. Five per cent of those aged 60 and over were classified as ‘other/non-determined’ in 1990; by 2013 this proportion had increased to 8%. We are also told Between 2011 and 2012 the proportion of Protestants fell by six percentage points (from 62% to 56%), the proportion of Catholics increased by eight percentage points (from 29% to 37%), and the proportion of those classified as other/non-determined decreased by two percentage points (from 9% to 7%). Such a large swing in the religious composition of the population of this age group may be due to sampling error and as such year on year changes should be observed with caution and longer term trends should also be considered"

 The breakdown of the Population Aged 16 to 24 tells us "The proportion of Protestants has fallen by seven percentage points between 1990 and 2013, from 49% to 42%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by one percentage points, from 44% to 45%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled (from 7% to 13%) over this period".

The data on the 'Working Age Population' shows that the population between the ages 16 to 64 is at or very close to parity. The data on 'Population Aged 16 & Over' and 'Population Aged 60+' telling us there are significantly more Protestants in the older age cohorts. The data on 'Population Aged 16 to 24' shows us that Catholics are in a majority in the younger age cohorts. We can therefore conclude that tipping point for the 'Working Age Population' will be seen in the LFS 2014 and if there is a sampling error in 2014 we will see it in the 2015 report.

Equality Commission 24th Monitoring Report

Talks on parades, flags, the legacy of the past, outstanding issues of the Good Friday and other agreements and financial issues look set to fail yet again due to the inability of Unionists to compromise. As demographics change Unionists must surely realise that they would be better off cutting a deal now from a position of strength rather than in a few years down the line when the increasing Catholic population turns into increasing Nationalist political representation. This is because if the correlation between religion and voting patterns remains strong, Unionists might find that when the time comes to move from the "not an inch" mentality that they have no cards left to play.

The latest snapshot of demographic change can be seen in the 24th Monitoring Report. The report carried out annually by the Equality Commission provides a breakdown of the community background of the monitored workforce in the North of Ireland in the prior year.

The latest publication tells us that in 2013 Catholics made up 47.0% of the workforce and Protestants made up 53.0%. The Catholic share continues to increase as the Protestant share declines (by around 0.4% per annum). In 2013 there was a 0.8% swing on prior year figures. We are rapidly approaching parity.

The reason for the convergence can be explained by the net effect of those entering and exiting the workforce on a yearly basis.

Catholics (52.0%) again had a greater proportion of Applicants than Protestants (48.0%). This trend is accelerating as school leavers and graduates (which are majority Catholic) enter the workforce.



In 2013 the Catholic share of the Appointees to the workforce increased by 1.5% to 52.4% suggesting that the slight decline in 2012 was temporary and the overall trend of increasing Catholic appointees from 44.8% in 2001 continues.

One would expect the vast majority of Leavers of the workforce, do so due to retirement. We know that Protestants make up approximately two thirds of people of retirement age. It is therefore quite puzzling why Protestants only account for 50.7% of leavers. The Catholic share was 49.3%.

Peace Monitoring Report No. 3

 

The Northern Ireland Peace Monitoring Report is an annual report published by the Community Relations Council which provides us with a range of data on life in the North.

The 2014 Report provides us with some striking figures on the demographic change in which it is widely accepted is occurring.

The image above confirms what we know from the Census. The "tipping point" three years on from the census is the age 39. That is, for all ages below this age Catholics make up a majority. For all ages above this age Protestants are in the majority. Most older people are Protestant, most younger people are Catholic. The greater the age the greater that proportion of Protestants in the population.

In Belfast, Catholics make up 49% of the population a mere 1% off an outright majority. Protestants make up 42%. Will the next report show Catholics at the magic 50%?

Other interesting facts findings include:

• The report finds that 60% of entrants to higher education are Catholic and 60% are female.
• The highest achievers in education are Catholic girls
• The report sees the Catholic middle classes as the big winner from the peace process so far. Their income levels and educational qualifications are now marginally higher than their Protestant counterparts and their numbers look like rising to eventually create a Catholic majority.
• Feeling Irish and wanting a united Ireland both peaked in the Celtic tiger years but once the Irish banking crisis hit in people didn’t identify with Irish unity so strongly.
• The workforce is becoming |increasing female (52.4% in 2010) and increasingly Catholic.
• Educational achievement decreases across the gender, religious and class lines until it bottoms out with poorer |Protestant boys who don’t qualify for free school meals.

Schools Census - Update

Each year I blog on the publication of the Schools Census. Due to the strong correlation between religion and political viewpoint as demonstrated in voting trends, changes in the demographic breakdown of Schools in the North can be used to determine future changes in voting patterns.

My recent blog on the Schools Census 2013/2014 showed Catholics now make up 51.1% of the school population. Protestants & Other Christians and 'Others' (Non Christian, No Religion and Not Recorded) make up 39.2% and 9.7% respectively.

 

In order to attain a truer picture of the demographic breakdown in the Schools I have replicated NISRA's allocation of Others in the 2011 Census.

With the benefit of tables DC2116NI & DC2117NI, I have gone back and reallocated 'Others' in the Schools Census publications from 2010/2011 as follows:

Schools Census 2010/2011:
• For children aged 5-11: 21.1% to 'Catholic' and 22.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.

• For children/adolescents aged 12-18: 23.1% to 'Catholic' and 27.5% to 'Protestant and other  
  Christian'


Schools Census 2011/2012:
• For children aged 4-10 (a five year old in 2012 was 4 in 2011): 20.8% to 'Catholic' and 21.3% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.

• For children/adolescents aged 11-17: 22.8% to 'Catholic' and 26.3% to 'Protestant and other  
  Christian'


Schools Census 2012/2013:
• For children aged 3-9: 20.5% to 'Catholic' and 21.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.

• For children/adolescents aged 10-16: 22.6% to 'Catholic' and 25.3% to 'Protestant and other  
  Christian'


Schools Census 2013/2014:
• For children aged 2-8: 20.4% to 'Catholic' and 20.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.

• For children/adolescents aged 9-15: 22.3% to 'Catholic' and 24.6% to 'Protestant and other  
  Christian.'

Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.3%. Students of a Protestant community background has increased to 41.7%. Others have decreased to 5.0%.

Leaving aside the 5.0% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 56.1%/43.9%.

At some point in the mid 20s we will reach a tipping point where the Catholic Electorate (those aged 18 and over) will become a majority (or at least a plurality). All the evidence suggests this will also mean a Nationalist majority. Around the same time, if current trends continue we may well have a 60/40 split in the schools signalling that there will be no way back for Unionism.

School Census 2013/2014

Each year the Department of Education Northern Ireland (DENI) releases it's Schools Census relating to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North. This years census was published on the 25th of February. The census data includes a breakdown of the religion of the students. The correlation between religion and voting patters is very strong. Today's children are tomorrows voters. Therefore by examining the demographic changes in our schools we get an indication of how voting patterns are likely to change.

The graph below uses the data to show us the trends over the last 12 years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'

The trend in prior years has seen a gradual increase in the Catholic proportion of students in our schools. Protestants and Other Christians have been in steady decline. The Others have also shown a steady increase.

The Schools Census for 2013/2014 shows us that this trend continues. In the school year 2013/2014, the statistics show the make up to be: Catholics 51.1% (up 0.2%), Protestant 39.2% (down 0.4%) and Others 9.7% (up 0.2%).

The 'Others' of course consist of Non Christian, No Religion and Not Recorded.

In the 2011 Census the 'Others' consisted of Other Religions, No Religion and Not Stated. NISRA allocated a proportion of  'Others' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in) as follows:

• For children aged 5-11: 21.1% to 'Catholic' and 22.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.

• For children/adolescents aged 12-18: 23.1% to 'Catholic' and 27.5% to 'Protestant and other  
  Christian'.

Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.2%. Students of a Protestant community background has increased to 41.5%. Others have decreased to 5.3%

Note the sudden drop in the Protestant/Other Christians is due to the change of using the out of date 2001 data for reallocation with the much more accurate data from the 2011 census.

Leaving aside the 5.3% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 56.2%/43.8%

Catholics soon to have majority in Northern Ireland

An interesting video is after appearing on Youtube which predicts the community background of the two traditions in  2031.

Equality Commission 23rd Monitoring Report

The Equality Commission has published it's 23rd Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce in Northern Ireland for the year 2012. Protestants represented 53.4% of the workforce, down by 0.3% on 2011. Catholics in the workforce stood at 46.6%, an increase of 0.3% from the 2011 figure of 46.3%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph:

The reasons why this graph is converging are threefold.

Firstly, there continues to be more Catholic applicants to the monitored workforce than Protestants.  In 2012 the Catholic percentage stood at 51.6% and the Protestant percentage was 48.4%.

Secondly the numbers of Catholic appointees to the workforce in 2012 again exceeded their Protestant counterparts. In 2012 the Catholic percentage stood at 50.9% and the Protestant percentage was 49.1%.

Finally the proportion of Protestant leavers of the workforce in 2012 continues to be higher than the proportion of Catholic leavers.  In 2012 the Protestant percentage stood at 52.1% and the Catholic percentage was  47.9%.

Demographic Timebomb

The 2011 Census revealed the gap between the two main blocks had decreased from 157,965 to 58,332 in ten years, the equivalent of a reduction of 9,963 per year.

If the trends of the last ten years are to continue, all things being equal, we can calculate the date in which parity is reached.

If the gap is closing by 9,963 per year, it is closing by 27.3 per day (9,963/365). With the gap of 58,332 it will take 2,136 days for parity to be achieved (58,332/27.3).

The Census was carried out on 27 March 2011. 2,136 days on from the this date is 30 January 2017!

Of course people under the age of 18 cannot vote. Excluding under 18s the gap between the main blocks in Census 2011 is 98,561. The gap in the 2001 census was 182,202. Between the last two census' the gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 8,364 per year or 22.9 per day. The gap of 98,561 divided by the change per day gives us 4,301 days. 4,301 days on from 27 March 2011 is 04 January 2023!

  

Why is Unionism in Crisis?

The storming of Belfast City Hall, anti-democracy flag protests/rioting, Loyalist rioting in Ardoyne and Royal Avenue in Belfast, Castlereagh and the dramatic U-turn by Peter Robinson and the DUP on the Maze Peace Centre. It is clear that Unionism is in crisis.

Why is Unionism in crisis?

Census Comparison

The third release of 2011 census data, allows us to analyse the age profile of  'the big three'. The results are reflected in the graph below:

Using the equivalent data from the 2001 census, we can analyse the age profile of 'the big three' in 2001, The results are reflected in the graph below:

Comparing the data from the two graphs, the most striking question is why has the 'tipping point' (age under which Catholics make up a majority and over which Protestants make up a majority) increased by 12 years instead of 10?  Why has the tipping point which was age 24 in 2001 increased to age 36 in 2011 rather than age 34?

Looking at each of the big three separately might provide some answers. We can do this by bringing the numbers per age as per the 2001 census forward ten years and comparing the changes with the data in the 2011 census. For example, those aged 40 in the 2001 census will be age 50 in the 2011 census.

The 2001 data of course starts at age 10 as those aged 10 and under in 2011 were not born yet in 2001.

The number of 19 to 28 year old Catholics has decreased. The most logical explanation for this is that a significant number of people of this age group are likely to move abroad for education, travel and work.

The number of 32 to 44 year old Catholics has increased. Again this is probably due to people returning from education, travel and work abroad. There may also be an element of immigration from A6 (and predominately Catholic) countries.

From the age of 62 we start to see the number of Catholics decrease and from the age of 69 this trend accelerates. Obviously this can be attributed to increases in the number of deaths as people get older.

 

The numbers of 18 to 29 year old Protestants has decreased. Again, similar to their Catholic counterparts, many Protestants of this age group are likely to abroad for education, travel and work. However, the Protestant spike at this age group is much higher.

As can be expected, the number of Protestants decreases as more people pass on with old age. This is noticeable from age 56 and accelerates from age 71, similar to Catholics.

However unlike Catholics, the 32 to 44 year old age group has not increased. Possible reasons for this include less Protestants returning after completing their education (we have heard that Protestants are more likely to attend University in Britain and stay on and seek jobs once they have completed their education rather than return to the North) or completing their travels (emigration). There may also be less immigration of Protestants from other countries.

There is not much change among the Others (no religion/none) and this group therefore has no relevance as to why the 'tipping point' has increased by 12 years instead of 10, from age 24 to 36 and not 34. The reason for this appears to lie in the fact that more young Protestants having left and fewer having come/returned have distorted the correlation by 2 years.

Census 2011 - Third Release

The third release of census data provides us with a wealth of data on health, employment and housing, demographics and national identity in the North.

Some of the key points include:

Health

• 11% of middle aged Catholics assessed their general health as 'bad' or 'very bad' compared with 8% of middle aged Protestants.  

Employment

• 9% of Catholics were unemployed at the time of the census as opposed to 6% of Protestants.
• Catholics are less likely to be economically active although the gap has decreased from 4% to 0.5% since the last census.

Housing

• 12% of Catholics live in over-crowed conditions compared with 6% of Protestants.
• The average size of Catholic households is 2.72 persons compared to 2.41 in Protestant households
• Protestants are more likely to live alone

In summary, Catholics in the North are in poorer health, are more likely to be un-employed and live in larger households compared with Protestants.

Demographics

It was interesting to note that in the 2001 census, the 'tipping point' was age 24. At ages 24 and younger Catholics made up the majority of the population whereas at ages older than 24 Protestants made up the majority. This statistic was evident in table S306 of the 2001 census, as reflected in the graph below:

With the third release of the 2011 census, it is now possible to produce an up to date version of the graph:

In ten years the tipping point has increased by 12 years to the age of 36! Remember it is now 2013 so the tipping point will have increased a further 2.4 years to age 38.4!

We already know that since the 2001 census, the Catholic population has increased from 43.8% to 44.1% and the Protestant population has decreased from 53.1 to 48.3. With the third release, we now know the Catholic electorate population (aged 18 and over) is 43.8% (2001: 41.5) and the Protestant electorate population is 51.0 (2010: 56.2%).

52% of the Catholics in the North are under the age of 35 compared with 40% of Protestants. This tells us that under the age of 35, on census day there was 425,040 Catholics (817,385 x 52%) and 350,154 Protestants (875,385 x 40%), a majority of 75,000 Catholics. The split is 55/45.

National identity

• 10% of Catholics identify as British (The Rory McIlroys of this world!)
• 5% of Protestants identify as Irish
• 25% of Catholics identify as Northern Irish
• 15% of Protestants identify as Northern Irish
• Over half of Protestants who identify as British only are over 65 years of age
• 20% of school age Catholics have a good knowledge of Irish
• 6% of Catholics over the age of 75 years old have a good knowledge of Irish

Council Boundaries

The Belfast Telegraph has produced the above map of the new look council boundaries, which were proposed today.

From first impressions would suggest that of the 11 new councils, it would appear 5 will be under Nationalist control (Derry & Strabane, Fermanagh & Omagh, Mid Ulster, Newry Mourne & Down and Belfast) and 5 will be under Unionist control (Causeway Coast & Glens, Mid & East Antrim, and Lisburn & Castlereagh).

Unionists may well have control of Armagh, Banbridge & Craigavon initailly but it appears to be a maginal council where the 'Others' may hold the balance of power.

School Census 2012/2013

The School Census 2012/2013 relating to to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North has been published. The census data includes a breakdown of the religion of the students. As the correlation between religion and voting patters is very strong, one can assume that by looking at demographic trends in the schools today, we can get an indication of voting trends in the ballot box tomorrow.

The graph below uses the data to show us the trends over the last 11 years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'.

The trend is clear to see. The Catholic percentage of the student population remains steady at 50.9%. The Protestant/Other Christian percentage has declined further and now stands at 39.6% (down from 39.9%). The 'Other' group has increased 0.3% to 9.5%.

Looking at the graph, initially it appears that the 'Other' group has increased in line with the decrease in the 'Protestant/Other Christian' group. This of course would be to assume that the 'Other' group (which includes Non Christian and Other/No Religion/Not Recorded) is made up entirely of students from Protestant communtiy backgrounds.

As the data on religious breakdown by age from the 2011 census has not yet been released, we must use the data from the 2001 census (for now, I will update on release of 2011 data). In the 2001 census NISRA allocated children and teenagers of the 'Other/No Religion group' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in) as follows

•For children aged 5-11, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 24.3% to 'Catholic', 40.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 35.2% to 'None'

•For children aged 12-18, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 25.4% to 'Catholic', 46.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 27.6% to 'None'

Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.3%. Students of a Protestant community background has decreased to 43.7%.

Leaving aside the 3% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 54.9%/45.1%.

Census 2011 - Second Release

On 11 December the second phase of Census 2011 was published. The results included the breakdown of the 'religion or religion brought up in'. In March 2011 on the date of the census, there were 875,717 Protestants and other Christians (48%), 817,385 Catholics (45%) and 117,761 of Other Religion or No Religion (7%).

The 2001 census showed  there were 895,377 Protestants and other Christians (53%), 737,412 Catholics (44%) and 52,478 of Other Religion or No Religion (3%).

The gap between the two main blocks has decreased by 99,633 from 157,965 to 58,332 in ten years. This represents a reduction of nearly 10,000 per year. If current trends continue parity will be achieved at some point in 2016.

In relation to national identity 40% declared themselves to be British, 25% as Irish, and 21% as Northern Irish. Some Unionists argue that the 21% who declared as Northern Irish have made a political statement rather than stating a geographical fact. This is a comfort blanket. While there is a very strong correlation between religion and voting patterns in elections, we simply do not know how the 'Northern Irish' would vote.

Much has been written about this census from various newspaper articles, blogs and discussion forums. However the piece that struck me the most has come from an unlikely source. I am of the opinion that the Irish Independent is an anti-nationalist/republican newspaper. However it was this very newspaper article which has the cop on to know that the current trouble in greater Belfast is not really about the "fleg". No it is about rejecting democracy and changing demographics, change demonstrated in the 2011 census.


image: http://www.facebook.com/#!/LamhDeargUiNeillAbu

Belfast City Hall

On 4th of December 2012 the Union Jack which has flown over Belfast City Hall every day for more than a century was taken down.

Just over a week before the council vote on 3rd December, the council's strategic policy and resources committee voted 11-9 in favour of removing the flag completely. Nationalists argued that Belfast is a shared space and a neutral environment which should be welcoming for everyone. Symbols such as the British flag they argue, represent only one side of the community. They argued that if the Union Jack was to be flown it should be flown along with the Irish tricolour, otherwise no flag should be flown or an agreed flag should be flown. Unionists would not accept anything less than the Union flag continuing to fly over the City Hall for 365 days a year. As a compromise, The Alliance Party put forward a proposal to fly the flag on 17 designated days per year as recommended by the Equality Commission. And so in the council meeting Nationalists and Alliance voted to bring City Hall into line with Stormont and other government buildings in the North. Unionsits voted against. The motion passed 29 votes to 21.

The wheels were set in motion for this historic council vote in the aftermath of the local government election to Belfast City Council in 2011. When the ballots were counted the results saw Nationalist candidates elected to 24 seats on the council on 48.3% of the vote. Unionists candidates won 21 seats with 36.7% of the vote and The Alliance Party won the remaining 6 seats. It was the first time that Nationalists had won more seats than Unionists in Belfast. The Alliance Party held the balance of power.

 This graph which appears on Nicholas Whyte's excellent Ark website (http://www.ark.ac.uk/) shows the voting patterns since 1973 and shows how rapid demographic change which has occured in Belfast.

Census results - First Release - Phase 2

Phase 2 of the census results were published today. The results are effectively a breakdown of Phase 1 results by Local Government Districts (LGD). While today's publication does not give us a breakdown by community background, we can nonetheless break each LGD into Majority Nationalist (>55% CNR community background), Majority Unionist (>55% PUL communtiy background) and Balanced (both CNR & PUL community background 45%-55%) areas based on the 2001 census results.

Catholic majority areas have increased in population by an average of 9.2%. Protestant majority areas have increased in population by an average of 7.4%. Balanced areas have increased by 5.1%. Of course the LGDs in the tables above rely on the 2001 census which is ten years out of date. It is likely that some LGDs belong in a different group. For example the next batch of census results may show that Lisburn is a balanced LGD and at least one of the LGDs in the balanced areas group will have changed to the Catholic Majority group.

The phase 2 results also give us a breakdown of the population per LGD by age. In Nationalist districts west of the Bann and close to the border, the population is predominantly young.  This is demonstrated in the chart below showing the proportion of 0-15 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.





















In Unionist districts to the east, the population is predominantly old. This is demonstrated in the charts below showing the proportion of 65-84 year olds and over 85 year olds in each district as a percentage of the overall population.

Phase 2 of the 2011 census tells us that population growth in CNR community background areas is greater than in PUL community background areas. It also tell us that the CNR districts have predominantly young populations whereas the PUL districts have predominantly elderly populations. While I am uncomfortable speaking of the passing of elderly people in positive terms, it is only natural that as the older generation die off they will be replaced by children of the younger generation. Interesting times ahead.

Census results - First Release - Phase 1

The first figures from the 2011 census have been relased by NISRA.

I have taken some of the more interesting statistics that have been released and will expand in due course.

"In 2001, a person aged 35 would have been in the older half of the population in Northern Ireland. In 2011 a person would need to have been aged 38 to be in the older half of the population"

We can take from this that the age of 37 represents the median age of the population (half the population is aged under 37 years and half the population is aged over 37 years). This is interesting because the 2001 census showed that the 'tipping point' between the two main religous groups was age 27 (Census table s306a). That is, those people under the age of 27 were majority Catholic and those over the age of 27 were majority Protestant. All things being equal we can assume that the 'tipping point' has increased 10 years to the age of 37, the exact same as the median age. This would mean that parity has been reached between the two main religous groups in the North. However all is not equal. We know that the older half of the populus have a larger Protestant majority than the Catholic majority among the younger half. By how much? We do not know exactly. All will be revealed when Phase 2 & 3 of the census are released later in the year.

What we do know is what the religious breakdown of the 'big three' blocks was in 2001. Table S306 of the 2001 census tells us that Protestants made up 53.1% of the population, Catholics made up 43.8% and Others made up the remaining 3.1%. We aslo know of demographic factors such as a high Catholic birth rate, a Catholic majority in our Schools (53%) and Universities (66%). We know that 51% of applicants and 52% of appointees to the workforce are Catholic. We know that the 2001 census revealed that Protestants make up 66% of the 65 years and older age cohort. This is reflected in the higher death rate in majority Protestant areas.

We are less certain of the other major factor which will effect the full census results. Migration. It is clear that there has been a sharp increase in immigration but what effect this will have on the general population remains to be seen. In terms of Emigration one can assume that as the economy has fallen the numbers of young people moving abroad to work has sharply increased. Again we will have to wait to see what effect this will have on the population but my guess that emigration of the two main communities in the North is similar.

Therefore when Phase 2 & 3 figures are released it is likely that the Catholic and Other percentages will show an increase on the 2001 figure. This would mean that the Protestant figure will decrease.

The reason for the partition of Ireland was to manufacture a Protestant majority in the North. A decrease of 3.1% or more on the 2001 figure will mean that the purpose of the sectarian carve up of Ireland is defunct as the Protestant population will have fallen below 50%.

Table 1 – Census Year Population Estimates by Age (1911 and 2011) Age Group			1911				2011
Number		%			Number			%
0-15	404,400			32%		379,300			21%
16-39	467,500			37%		593,800			33%
40-64	267,700			21%		574,000			32%
65-84	106,900			9%		232,300			13%
85+	4,100			0.3%		31,400			1.7%
Total	1,250,500			100%		1,810,900			100%

(Census 2011)

School's Census

In February every year the School Census relating to students of nursery, primary, post primary and special schools in the North is published. The department of education has publised a spreadsheet of the religious background of students here. The graph below uses the data in the spreadsheet to show us the trends over the last ten years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'.

The trend is clear to see. The Catholic percentage of the student population which has been increasing year on year remains steady at 50.9%. The Protestant/Other Christian percentage has been in decline and now stands at 39.9%.

No doubt some would cling to the fact that the 'Other' group (9.2%) has increased in an equal but opposite direction to that of 'Protestant/Other Christian'. This of course would be to assume that the 'Other' group (which includes Non Christian and Other/No Religion/Not Recorded) is made up entirely of students from Protestant communtiy backgrounds. Logically this is not ture. However according to NISRA Protestants are more likely not to declare their religion.

In the 2001 census NISRA allocated children and teenagers of the 'Other/No Religion group' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in)as follows

•For children aged 5-11, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 24.3% to 'Catholic', 40.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 35.2% to 'None'

•For children aged 12-18, those who were declared as 'None/Not Stated': 25.4% to 'Catholic', 46.5% to 'Protestant and other Christian', 0.5% to 'Non-Christian, and 27.6% to 'None'

Using these figues to allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.0%. Students of a Protestant community background has decreased to 43.5%

Equality Commission 21st Monitoring Report

On 16 December 2011 the Equality Comission published its 21st Monitoring Report. This report gives us a breakdown of the numbers and percentage of Protestants and Catholics in the both the public and private sectors of the workforce in Northern Ireland for the year 2010. Protestants represented 54.1% of the workforce, down by 0.5% in 2009. Catholics in the workforce stood at 45.9%, an increase of 0.5% from the 2009 figure of 45.4%. The Protestant percentage has again declined as the Catholic percentage has increased. This trend has been constant as is represented in the following graph






The reason why this graph is converging is due to the fact that the numbers of Catholic appointees to the workforce in 2010 was 52.0% which is significantly greater than the amount of Catholics in the overall workforce. The numbers of Protestants appointed  to the workforce was 48.0% which is significantly lower than their representation in the entire workforce.

The Equality Commission Report for 2010 also shows us the composition of applicants to join the workforce by community background. In 2009 the Catholic percentage stood at 50.7% and the Protestant percentage was 49.3%.





In 2009, for the first time ever the number of Catholics seeking employment was greater than the number of Protestants (by 10,465). Currently there is a difference of 8.2% between the two blocks, a decrease of 1% point from 2009. If this trend continues we can expect further 'greening' of the workforce in the years ahead and parity reached in 2018. As two thirds of students in NI universities and 53.1% of students in NI schools are from a Catholic/Nationalist background the trend could even accelerate.