Sunday, May 1, 2011

Assembly 2011 predictions

The assembly 2011 website provides predictions of the Assembly election on May 5. The website invites people to make predictions on all 108 assembly seats. The site then accumulates these predictions to give the final result.

On April 22 the site tweeted: "With nearly 10,000 predictions already in, below is the breakdown of the composition of the next Assembly as predicted by the ‘assembly2011’ community".

The results can be seen here. If accurate the predictions show 51 assembly seats going to Unionists (-4) 48 going to Nationalists (+4), and 9 to Others (-). The preditions also show that Nationlists will gain seats from Unionists in East Antrim, Strangford, South Down and Upper Bann and gain Independent Kieran Deeney's seat in West Tyrone. Unionists will gain a seat from Nationalists in Lagan Valley and loose a seat to Alliance in North Down. If these resulsts prove accurate Unionisms lead of Nationalism will have been cut from 11 to 3 in just 4 years!


  1. DUP + UUP = 285,929 FPV
    SF + SDLP = 272,508 FPV
    The difference between Nationalism and Unionism is now 13,421 FPV.

    Ulster's Doomed! Tick Tock Tick Tock

  2. Well I think we can probably put the TUV, PUP and a couple more in the unionist camp. But this is the first election in which unionists do not have a majority. So tick tock anyway.

  3. Local Council results
    Unionist Bloc 300,629 votes
    Nationalist Bloc 277,416 votes
    Difference between two blocs 23,213 in Unionism's favour

  4. You know the loyalists are in trouble when even Kevin Myers has a good go at them in the Indo.

  5. Didn't quite turn out that way did it?

    Oh dear...