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Saturday, November 3, 2012

Time for a Referendum?

This week there has again been calls for a referendum on a United Ireland. Unionist politicians such as Jeffery Donaldson a.k.a Mystic Meg tell us there is no need to call a referendum as neither the South nor the North will vote in favour. Some Nationalists tell us that we should have a referendum but now is not the right time to have it, as there remains a Unionist majority in Stormont and because of the current economic climate.

In my opinion these Nationalists are correct. Now is not the right time. I do not really think Sinn Féin want a referendum in 2013 or in the short term either. But this is not the point. They know the only way of getting a Green Paper on Irish Unity is to have a referendum called. And when it is called or agreed to, there will be alot of work to do before a date for the referendum can be set. You can't expect people to vote for something in the future if you do not know what you are voting for. How would 26 County voters have voted on the Lisbon Treaty before the terms and conditions of the treaty were set out? If around 30% (as some estimate would be the percentage in favour of a UI if a referendum was held today) were in favour before they even read the treaty, the bookies may have stopped taking bets by the time terms were published.

A series of talks should begin bewteen the Irish government, the British govenment and all parties in order to trash out the Green Paper. An agreement could take several years! So in this light Sinn Fein are correct to call for a referendum now as it needs to be set out what a United Ireland would entail - Federal arrangement?, Fiscal policy?, Health? Education?, Welfare?, Commonwealth membership? etc.

The British government will have an important role to play and they will need to be careful. If they maintain that they have no strategic interest they will agree, should the people vote for reunification, to subsidise the transition period as the North's economy is rebalanced (1 public sector job cut for every 2 private sector job created anyone?). Otherwise disidents can argue that the British purposely positioned the North as a welfare dependent economy in order that the South could not initially afford reunification.

I say initially becasue it is not yet known whether the sum of savings from synergies, removal of duplication of servies etc and the extra revenues from suitable fiscal policies, economies of scale etc that would occur in a UI are greater than the current British subvention to the North of Ireland.

And speaking of the economic argument. To those who suggest that people will not vote for a UI for economic reasons, let me ask them this. Say in a UI, the OAP of the South is to be maintained. How many Unionists (and there are alot of them over the age of 65) will vote No to having their weekly income doubled from £97.65 to €230.30 at todays rates?

15 comments:

  1. Well put Enda.
    Not to mention the unemployed. The basic rate down South is €188 versus £60 up North weekly.
    The important thing is to open up a serious debate though and when is a good time?

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  2. No one will take it seriously at the moment, and perhaps they wont until there is an SF first minister or a majority nationalist Stormont. The southern parties won't even go into government with SF, like. Maybe if there's an SF/FF southern gov, we might get a move on with stuff like this, but that might only scare the unionists more.

    SF really need to get some allies somewhere to help the cause, but I dont see from where. Some leftists in Britain is probably the most likely place.

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  3. "The British government will have an important role to play and they will need to be careful. If they maintain that they have no strategic interest they will agree, should the people vote for reunification, to subsidise the transition period as the North's economy is rebalanced (1 public sector job cut for every 2 private sector job created anyone?). Otherwise disidents can argue that the British purposely positioned the North as a welfare dependent economy in order that the South could not initially afford reunification."...

    David Cameron has already publicly stated that Britain has a strategic interest in Ulster. In any case, the initial statement was little more than hot air, as part of the process of rolling up PIRA.

    The idea that Britain will subsidise Irish unity is nothing short of hilarious.

    Why would 'dissidents' care either way if The British were on the way out?

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  4. http://bangordub.wordpress.com/2012/11/14/remembrance-or-triumphalism/comment-page-1/#comment-887

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  5. Rascal if you read correctly you would see that I never said the British should subsidise a United Ireland. They should pay for the transition period over say 5 years as the economy is being rebalanced as it was the them that created the imbalance.

    BD now is the time for the debate. IMO the time for a border poll is as soon as the first election returns more nationalists than unionists.

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  6. I agree with Enda, now is not the time for a referendum but a debate should deffo happen. Nothing will move while FG are in Gov for sure. If FF/SF form a Gov at the same time as Labour get back in GB there is a better chance of something serious happenning. At the same time there needs to be a political Majority for nationalism in Stormont or at least parity. People might get a bit giddy when the census figures come out on the 11th Dec but we must realise that the over 18 percentage of Nationalist voters will be short of the overall Catholic population, my Calculations suggest 46/47% Catholic background but only 43/44% electoral strength. IMO it will be around 2021 before there is electoral parity. It might be advantageous for nationalists and Dublin to suggest Joint Authority at that time (any views?). As for David Cameron and his comments I think people should be aware that he said 'he' had a selfish and strategic interest in NI. The comment was more a Sop to UUP delegates at their conference rather than a change in Conservative party policy. He was very careful not to say 'Britain' had such an interest as per the position since downing street declaration and before. Regarding subsidies, If London thought they could cut their subsidy to the North even by a small amount in the context of a political deal, i reckon they would jump at the chance.

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  7. Catholic support for DUP
    Monday, 26 November 2012
    DUP leader Peter Robinson said he believes the majority of Catholics in Northern Ireland are happy to remain part of the UK. Do you see this transferring into more Catholic votes for the DUP?
    Yes - Catholics who want to maintain the strong links to mainland GB will vote for the biggest pro-Union party in Northern Ireland
    23 (15%)
    No - Catholics may be happy for NI to remain part of the UK for now but it will take more work for the DUP to translate that view into votes for their party
    60 (39%)
    No - I disagree with Peter Robinson’s view entirely. I believe most Catholics are still nationalist and would vote for a united Ireland
    72 (46%)

    Poll taken from the Belfast Newsletter

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  8. Sorry what! Am I reading this right 15% of catholics would vote for DUP. I can honestly say that is b@lls. Certainly many catholics want to maintain the union but that translates into voting breakdown as follows
    a) still voting for a nationalist party but would vote for UK in referndum.
    b)pro-uk and will vote Alliance
    c)pro-uk and will vote UUP because the candidate is unionist lite eg Basil McCrea, John McAllister or it is a tactical vote against the DUP.
    The only catholics that will vote DUP is if the candidate did some exceptional work at a local level that had a serious positive effect on their life otherwise TUV are as likely to get a vote for comedy value. These figures are complete horsesh1t and are likely circulated to soften the blow of the census results which will show Protestant community background to drop below 50% and the Catholic community background to be pretty much level

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  9. Relax, its an online poll, it has absolutely no basis to claim even the remotest statistical accuracy

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  10. Enda with d-day looming regarding the census stats are you willing to guestimate any of the major figures for us or will we have to wait and see on Tuesday

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  11. My number crunching leads me to believe it will be 50.5% Protestant and 46% Catholic.If the Catholic proportion is higher than that, it means that within 5 yrs there will be a Catholic Plurality.

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  12. My number crunching leads me to believe it will be 50.5% Protestant and 46% Catholic.If the Catholic proportion is higher than that, it means that within 5 yrs there will be a Catholic Plurality.

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  13. This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

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  14. Lets just see the results on the 11th. I would not be surprised if the "other" group will show the largest increase

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  15. Is this a UVF flag that Jamie Bryson, spokesperson for the UPF and winner of 107 votes, is carrying? pic.twitter.com/C1EssoeP

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