The graph below uses the data to show us the trends over the last 12 years among the three main groups 'Catholic', 'Protestant/Other Christian' and 'Other'
The trend in prior years has seen a gradual increase in the Catholic proportion of students in our schools. Protestants and Other Christians have been in steady decline. The Others have also shown a steady increase.
The Schools Census for 2013/2014 shows us that this trend continues. In the school year 2013/2014, the statistics show the make up to be: Catholics 51.1% (up 0.2%), Protestant 39.2% (down 0.4%) and Others 9.7% (up 0.2%).
In the 2011 Census the 'Others' consisted of Other Religions, No Religion and Not Stated. NISRA allocated a proportion of 'Others' into both community backgrounds (religion or religion brought up in) as follows:
• For children aged 5-11: 21.1% to 'Catholic' and 22.0% to 'Protestant and other Christian'.
• For children/adolescents aged 12-18: 23.1% to 'Catholic' and 27.5% to 'Protestant and other
Christian'.
Using these figues to re-allocate the 'Other/No Religion/Not Recorded' group in the Schools census figures, we get a truer reflection of the community background of students. Students of a Catholic community background have increased to 53.2%. Students of a Protestant community background has increased to 41.5%. Others have decreased to 5.3%
Note the sudden drop in the Protestant/Other Christians is due to the change of using the out of date 2001 data for reallocation with the much more accurate data from the 2011 census.
Leaving aside the 5.3% 'Others', the split between students of Catholic and Protestant community backgrounds stands at 56.2%/43.8%
When are the unionists going to smell the coffee and end the tantrums and vitriol? How clear does the writing on the wall have to be? They've moved the goalposts from the nationalists will never be a majority to the nationalists won't vote for a united Ireland because Dublin couldn't afford the dole payments.. and other such claptrap. How about the UK and Irish govts agree to pay the dole of their respective passport holders? I think that would sell. The British would get shot of N.I., which they'd love to do do, and Dublin wouldn't have the burden of supporting the uneducated unionists.
ReplyDeleteI always thought that the british paid for medical expenses etc for british subjects overseas? So it wouldnt be a great leap for them to continue paying welfare expenses etc for their subjects in the event of unification.
DeleteIn one of your other posts it was noted that in the under 65's in the 2011 census the community background breakdown was 48% Catholic and 43% Protestant so when you consider that 41.5% of school children are Protestant it looks like the 2 populations have pretty much stabilised.
ReplyDeleteYou are comparing the proportion without distributing the others for the census with the proportion after distributing the others for schools. The proper comparison is 43% Protestant in the census and 39.2% in the schools (see above).
DeleteI see the Daily Mail has printed the names of some of those who received these letters of comfort.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2568874/If-terror-suspects-immunity-not-Britains-brave-Paras-Furious-MPs-demand-immunity-soldiers.html
I think it's more to do with dole payments. The North's economy is in need of significant rebalancing. There are far too many civil servants in proportion to the size of the private sector. But you are right. Unionists should move now while they are in a position of strength.
ReplyDeleteYes the two populations have come very close to parity. It is likely that there is less than 30,000 between the main two blocks.
Re: OTRs. I'm not sure the letters have been rescinded. Therefore why has Peter Robinson not resigned?
The issue that is most likely going to cause the greatest hassle is the changing vote. Within ten years, Nationalist parties will have a majority of seats in Europe, Assembly and Westminster. How Unionists will swallow this is hard to forecast but its gonna hurt.
ReplyDeleteUnionists privately know that this reality is coming but their personal careers and short-termism trumps the long term.
DeleteOne of the inbuilt flaws of unionist political leaderships is their innovation deficiency. They have no ideas other than personal political perseveration. Like their hard line predecessors they are the worst enemy to the long term viability of unionism.
ReplyDeletehttp://eamonnmallie.com/2014/02/the-politics-of-frustration-by-david-mckittrick/