Friday, January 27, 2017

Labour Force Survey 2015

The Labour Force Survey for 2015 has been published. The LFS gives us an annual demographic breakdown of the working age population and general population from the age of 16. Although results can be erratic due to variances in the samples taken, the trends can be used to determine future voting patterns given the strong correlation between religion and political affiliation.

The 2015 report shows that for the first time, those from a Catholic community background make up a plurality of the working age population. Parity has been reached with those from a Protestant community background in all ages above the age of 16. Catholics are now in an overall majority in the 16-24 age cohort as opposed to just 35% in the over 60s.

Working Age Population
"In 2015, there was a higher proportion of Catholics among the working age population (46%) than Protestants (40%), with the remaining 14% reported as ‘other/non-determined’.

This is the first time in the time series presented in Figure 2.2 that Catholics amount for a higher proportion of the working age population.

In 1990, the religious composition of the working age population was 54% Protestant, 41% Catholic and 6% other/non-determined. Over this period, the number of Protestants of working age decreased by 5% (from 495,000 to 469,000), the number of working age Catholics increased by 44% (from 375,000 to 538,000), and the number of those classified as ‘other/non-determined’ trebled (from 53,000 to 159,000)."

Population Aged 16+
"The proportion of Protestants has fallen by 12 percentage points between 1990 and 2015, from 56% to 44%, while the proportion of Catholics has increased by six percentage points, from 38% to 44%, over this same period. The proportion of the population classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has doubled (from 6% to 12%) over this period.

Between 1990 and 2015 the number of Protestants aged 16 and over decreased by
10,000, or 2%, to 633,000, while the number of Catholics increased by 193,000, or 44%, to 633,000 over the same period. The number of people aged 16 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ has almost trebled from 63,000 to 180,000 over this period."

Population Aged 16-24
"The proportion of this age group who reported as Protestant has decreased
between 1990 and 2015 (from 49% to 36%), while the proportion of Catholics increased
(from 44% to 51%), and the proportion classified as ‘other/non-determined’ has almost doubled, from 7% to 13%, over the same period.

Between 1990 and 2015, the number of Protestants in this age group has decreased by 38,000 (33%) from 116,000 to 78,000. The number of Catholics has increased slightly over this period, from 105,000 to 109,000 (4%). The largest proportionate increase was among those classified as ‘other/non-determined’; from 16,000 in 1990 to 29,000 in 2015."

Population Aged 60+
"The proportion of this age group who identified as Protestant has decreased from 66% in 1990 to 57% in 2015, while the proportion of Catholics has increased, from 30% to 35%, over this same period. Five per cent of those aged 60 and over were classified as ‘other/non-determined’ in 1990; by 2015 this proportion had increased to 8%.

There were 166,000 Protestants aged 60 and over in 1990 and this had increased to
212,000 by 2015. The number of Catholics in this age group increased from 76,000 to
132,000 over the same period. The 11,000 who were aged 60 and over classified as
‘other/non-determined’ in 1990 had almost trebled to 30,000 by 2015."


  1. Given the facts that..

    1. Parity has been reached in the population 16+
    2. Given the schools census, clear that Catholic majority in the population 0-16 (by a significant margin)

    We must roughly be at the point where the Catholic population is greater than the Protestant population.

    Also clear that the Catholic population is younger and unionism depends on pensioner votes to stay on top.

    Change is happening rapidly. Unionism's heyday is coming to an end.

    The writing is on the wall!

    'Our revenge will be the laughter of our children'

    1. Our revenge will be our generousity as the tables turn.

  2. More of the same in this story from the News Letter.

  3. It will all come down to turnout.
    Do Catholics give a toss about being 2nd class.

    I have no sympathy for selfish lazy people who can't be bothered voting!